Happy Valley · 2021-12-01
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMART IDEA, ridden by H Bentley and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with MOON PEAKS second and AHEAD A HEAD third. The 2.9 favourite INNO LEGEND finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SMART IDEA H/TT 1.10.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 6 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 5 | 32.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | AHEAD A HEAD B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 28.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | SAVVY DELIGHT TT1 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | THE JOLLY B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 30.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | TREASURE OF FIELD B1/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 6.7 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | CORDYCEPS TWO H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 10 | 102.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | HUNKY DORY B1 R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 7 | 87.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | INNO LEGEND V J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 8 | 2.9 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | JUBILATION V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 211.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | MASTER AQUA CP1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.0 | 11 |
| — | 1 | SHOWINA K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SAVVY DELIGHT | 29.0% | 3.44 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | SMART IDEA | 15.9% | 6.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MASTER AQUA | 14.8% | 6.77 | 11 |
| 4 | 2 | INNO LEGEND | 13.7% | 7.28 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 10.1% | 9.94 | 6 |
| 6 | 12 | THE JOLLY | 6.3% | 15.90 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | AHEAD A HEAD | 4.2% | 23.82 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | MOON PEAKS | 2.4% | 42.25 | 2 |
| 9 | 3 | HUNKY DORY | 2.0% | 50.77 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | CORDYCEPS TWO | 1.2% | 80.94 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | JUBILATION | 0.4% | 234.06 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 58.5
PLACE
7 17
8 58
11 62
QUINELLA
7,11 620.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 135.5
7,11 153
8,11 516
FORECAST
7,11 1,358
TIERCE
7,11,8 15,625
TRIO
7,8,11 2,572
FIRST 4
6,7,8,11 2,494
QUARTET
7,11,8,6 66,752
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/7 353.5
8/11 349
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 16.5