Happy Valley · 2021-12-01
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 4 | 6.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | WAH MAY LUCK Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 2 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | INCREDIBLE Led early TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 11 | 6.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 6 | 3.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 12 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 1 | 80.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly B-/SR1/TT1 H W Lai · D J Whyte | H W Lai | D J Whyte | 10 | 105.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 5 | 24.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | TAILOR MADE TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 15.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GRAND POWER B H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 3 | 38.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | WHO'S HORSE B/XB/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 7 | 37.0 | 7-1/4 |
| — | 0 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | — | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SUCCESS ALLSTARS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1-1/4, with WAH MAY LUCK second and INCREDIBLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite THIS IS CHARISMA finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 19.7% | 5.08 | 5 |
| 2 | 0 | SUPER HONG KONG | 17.7% | 5.65 | — |
| 3 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 12.4% | 8.08 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR | 11.4% | 8.80 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | WAH MAY LUCK | 8.0% | 12.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | TAILOR MADE | 7.1% | 14.18 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | INCREDIBLE | 7.0% | 14.19 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | GRAND POWER | 6.1% | 16.50 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | WHO'S HORSE | 4.3% | 23.46 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 3.1% | 32.12 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | SMILING FACE | 1.8% | 54.43 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR | 1.6% | 63.69 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 37
PLACE
3 27
4 16.5
5 18
QUINELLA
4,5 122
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 76.5
3,5 69.5
4,5 42
FORECAST
4,5 198
TIERCE
4,5,3 883
TRIO
3,4,5 181
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 288
QUARTET
4,5,3,6 4,572
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/4 242.5
7/5 47.5