Happy Valley · 2021-12-01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 7 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. AWE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/4, with GO BALLISTIC second and LUCKY DIAMOND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.18.86

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	AWE Closed strongly TT 2.18.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	2	131 lb	2.7	2-1/4
2	7	GO BALLISTIC Led early SR/TT J Moreira · D E Ferraris	J Moreira	D E Ferraris	1	116 lb	2.8	2-1/4
3	5	LUCKY DIAMOND B C Y Ho · K H Ting	C Y Ho	K H Ting	4	127 lb	7.4	3-3/4
4	1	CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan	M F Poon	P O'Sullivan	3	131 lb	19.0	5-1/2
5	2	UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · D E Ferraris	B Shinn	D E Ferraris	6	132 lb	22.0	5-3/4
6	4	VICTORIOUS SEEKER B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan	K C Leung	P O'Sullivan	5	131 lb	6.3	6
7	6	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	7	121 lb	9.7	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick GO BALLISTIC (31.5%) finished 2nd — the winner AWE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	GO BALLISTIC	31.5%	3.17	2	2.8
2	3	AWE	30.1%	3.32	1	2.7
3	5	LUCKY DIAMOND	17.5%	5.71	3	7.4
4	4	VICTORIOUS SEEKER	10.0%	10.00	6	6.3
5	2	UNITE SPIRIT	4.6%	21.96	5	22.0
6	6	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA	3.3%	30.45	7	9.7
7	1	CHAMPION PAL	3.1%	32.62	4	19.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 27

PLACE

3 13

5 21

7 11.5

QUINELLA

3,7 35.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 43.5

3,7 16.5

5,7 43.5

FORECAST

3,7 80

TIERCE

3,7,5 325

TRIO

3,5,7 89

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 194

QUARTET

3,7,5,1 2,743

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99