沙田 · 2022-03-12 · 14:31
第 4場
2022-03-12沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由M F Poon策騎、T P Yung訓練的SHANGHAI DRAGON勝出，贏出3/4。LOTUS FAVORITES獲得亞軍；RIGHT AS RAIN獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.9倍大熱門RIGHT AS RAIN跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SHANGHAI DRAGON 一路領先 B 1.47.34 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 11 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 13 | LOTUS FAVORITES 後段發力 H A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | RIGHT AS RAIN 後段發力 B K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 5 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 7 | 16.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | ROBOT WARRIOR B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | WIN WIN FIGHTER R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 8 | 25.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | RED ELYSEES 後段發力 B/TT B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 14 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | MR ALDAN B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 3 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | TAILOR MADE TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 1 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | EEVEE B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 6.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPER ELEGANCE 後段發力 V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | FLYING MIGHTY 後段發力 B/TT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 6 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 13 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | HANG'S DECISION B C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 2 | 57.0 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | EEVEE | 21.8% | 4.58 | 10 |
| 2 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 16.7% | 6.00 | 13 |
| 3 | 5 | ROBOT WARRIOR | 13.4% | 7.46 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | RIGHT AS RAIN | 7.7% | 13.05 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 6.2% | 16.05 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 5.2% | 19.07 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 4.8% | 20.71 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 3.9% | 25.35 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | RED ELYSEES | 3.7% | 26.95 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | HANG'S DECISION | 3.7% | 27.10 | 14 |
| 11 | 14 | TAILOR MADE | 3.7% | 27.15 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | FLYING MIGHTY | 3.6% | 28.10 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | LOTUS FAVORITES | 3.4% | 29.15 | 2 |
| 14 | 6 | MR ALDAN | 2.1% | 47.50 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 196.5
PLACE
4 16
8 56.5
13 45
QUINELLA
8,13 1,286.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 140
4,13 116
8,13 364
FORECAST
8,13 2,761
TIERCE
8,13,4 15,910
TRIO
4,8,13 1,974
FIRST 4
3,4,8,13 4,446
QUARTET
8,13,4,3 131,570
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,11/4,8,13 25,526
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 22.5
3RD DOUBLE
3/8 1,126.5
3/13 194