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Sha Tin · 2022-03-12 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-12 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SHANGHAI DRAGON, ridden by M F Poon and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with LOTUS FAVORITES second and RIGHT AS RAIN third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.47.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON Wire to wire B 1.47.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · T P Yung 11 19.0 3/4
2 13 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H A Badel · D J Hall 10 15.0 3/4
3 4 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B K Teetan · C W Chang 5 3.9 1-1/4
4 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 16.0 2
5 5 ROBOT WARRIOR B H Bentley · P F Yiu 4 5.2 2-1/4
6 1 WIN WIN FIGHTER R Maia · K W Lui 8 25.0 3
7 7 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · K L Man 14 10.0 3-3/4
8 6 MR ALDAN B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 3 19.0 3-3/4
9 14 TAILOR MADE TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 1 21.0 3-3/4
10 10 EEVEE B Z Purton · D A Hayes 13 6.4 3-3/4
11 9 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 24.0 4
12 12 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · D J Hall 6 25.0 4
13 11 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 9 10.0 4-1/2
14 2 HANG'S DECISION B C Y Ho · W Y So 2 57.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHANGHAI DRAGON2. LOTUS FAVORITES+0.75L3. RIGHT AS RAIN+1.25L4. PAKISTAN FRIEND+2L5. ROBOT WARRIOR+2.25L6. WIN WIN FIGHTER+3L7. RED ELYSEES+3.75L8. MR ALDAN+3.75L9. TAILOR MADE+3.75L10. EEVEE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EEVEE (21.8%) finished 10th — the winner SHANGHAI DRAGON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 EEVEE 21.8% 4.58 10
2 11 TURQUOISE ALPHA 16.7% 6.00 13
3 5 ROBOT WARRIOR 13.4% 7.46 5
4 4 RIGHT AS RAIN 7.7% 13.05 3
5 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON 6.2% 16.05 1
6 9 SUPER ELEGANCE 5.2% 19.07 11
7 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND 4.8% 20.71 4
8 1 WIN WIN FIGHTER 3.9% 25.35 6
9 7 RED ELYSEES 3.7% 26.95 7
10 2 HANG'S DECISION 3.7% 27.10 14
11 14 TAILOR MADE 3.7% 27.15 9
12 12 FLYING MIGHTY 3.6% 28.10 12
13 13 LOTUS FAVORITES 3.4% 29.15 2
14 6 MR ALDAN 2.1% 47.50 8
EEVEETURQUOISE ALPHAROBOT WARRIORRIGHT AS RAINSHANGHAI DRAGON — wonSUPER ELEGANCEPAKISTAN FRIENDWIN WIN FIGHTERRED ELYSEESHANG'S DECISIONTAILOR MADEFLYING MIGHTYLOTUS FAVORITESMR ALDAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 196.5

PLACE

4 16

8 56.5

13 45

QUINELLA

8,13 1,286.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 140

4,13 116

8,13 364

FORECAST

8,13 2,761

TIERCE

8,13,4 15,910

TRIO

4,8,13 1,974

FIRST 4

3,4,8,13 4,446

QUARTET

8,13,4,3 131,570

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/4,8,13 25,526

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 22.5

3RD DOUBLE

3/8 1,126.5

3/13 194