Sha Tin · 2022-03-12 · 13:01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-12 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION'S WAY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with CHEERFUL DAYS second and KA YING STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite CHEERFUL DAYS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P/TT 1.33.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 6.3 | N |
| 2 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 5 | 2.5 | N |
| 3 | 1 | KA YING STAR V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL E/B1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | SAVVY NINE B/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 3 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 28.8% | 3.47 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | SAVVY NINE | 19.1% | 5.23 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 17.7% | 5.64 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 16.9% | 5.92 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 9.6% | 10.44 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | KA YING STAR | 7.9% | 12.72 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 63.5
PLACE
4 26.5
6 16.5
QUINELLA
4,6 91.5
FORECAST
4,6 224
TIERCE
4,6,1 923
TRIO
1,4,6 126
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 196
QUARTET
4,6,1,2 4,221