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Sha Tin · 2022-03-12 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 1 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 6 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-12 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION'S WAY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with CHEERFUL DAYS second and KA YING STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite CHEERFUL DAYS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.33.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P/TT 1.33.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 3 6.3 N
2 6 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui 5 2.5 N
3 1 KA YING STAR V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 4.9 1-3/4
4 2 HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 6 19.0 1-3/4
5 5 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL E/B1 J Moreira · J Size 2 3.1 2-3/4
6 3 SAVVY NINE B/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 4 12.0 3

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAMPION'S WAY2. CHEERFUL DAYS+0.05L3. KA YING STAR+1.75L4. HEALTHY HAPPY+1.75L5. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+2.75L6. SAVVY NINE+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EXCELLENT PROPOSAL (28.8%) finished 5th — the winner CHAMPION'S WAY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 28.8% 3.47 5
2 3 SAVVY NINE 19.1% 5.23 6
3 4 CHAMPION'S WAY 17.7% 5.64 1
4 6 CHEERFUL DAYS 16.9% 5.92 2
5 2 HEALTHY HAPPY 9.6% 10.44 4
6 1 KA YING STAR 7.9% 12.72 3
EXCELLENT PROPOSALSAVVY NINECHAMPION'S WAY — wonCHEERFUL DAYSHEALTHY HAPPYKA YING STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 63.5

PLACE

4 26.5

6 16.5

QUINELLA

4,6 91.5

FORECAST

4,6 224

TIERCE

4,6,1 923

TRIO

1,4,6 126

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 196

QUARTET

4,6,1,2 4,221