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Sha Tin · 2022-03-12 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER FORTUNE TT 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 2.0 1/2
2 0 FIVE ELEMENTS V-/B1 B Shinn · F C Lor 7 16.0 1/2
3 0 WAR OF COURAGE B K C Leung · K L Man 3 7.7 2-1/4
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT R Maia · R Gibson 12 52.0 2-1/4
5 0 DOUBLE SIX POP J Moreira · A T Millard 9 10.0 4
7 0 GALLANT EXPRESS E/P A Hamelin · J Size 5 6.8 6-1/2
8 0 MIGHTY VALOR V L Hewitson · P F Yiu 6 37.0 6-3/4
9 0 COMING PATCH H Bentley · K H Ting 1 41.0 7
10 0 BEAUTY CHAMP XB/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 11 56.0 8
11 0 WAR WEAPON B1/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 6.1 13-1/4
— 0 PHOENIX LIGHT V Borges · C H Yip — — —
— 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR L Ferraris · D J Whyte — 39.0 5-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER FORTUNE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with FIVE ELEMENTS second and WAR OF COURAGE third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER FORTUNE—2. FIVE ELEMENTS+0.5L3. WAR OF COURAGE+2.25L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+2.25L5. DOUBLE SIX POP+4L7. GALLANT EXPRESS+6.5L8. MIGHTY VALOR+6.75L9. COMING PATCH+7L10. BEAUTY CHAMP+8L11. WAR WEAPON+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FORTUNE (30.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPER FORTUNE 30.3% 3.30 1
2 0 GALLANT EXPRESS 14.5% 6.89 7
3 0 DOUBLE SIX POP 11.4% 8.78 5
4 0 WAR WEAPON 9.7% 10.33 11
5 0 FIVE ELEMENTS 8.1% 12.35 2
6 0 WAR OF COURAGE 6.7% 14.95 3
7 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY 5.2% 19.38 —
8 0 BEAUTY CHAMP 5.1% 19.50 10
9 0 COMING PATCH 4.8% 20.67 9
10 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 3.1% 32.31 4
11 0 MIGHTY VALOR 1.1% 87.92 8
SUPER FORTUNE — wonGALLANT EXPRESSDOUBLE SIX POPWAR WEAPONFIVE ELEMENTSWAR OF COURAGEOUR LUCKY GLORYBEAUTY CHAMPCOMING PATCHRIGHT HONOURABLEMIGHTY VALOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 20

PLACE

1 44.5

8 10.5

12 22

QUINELLA

1,8 157.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 63

1,12 136.5

8,12 29.5

FORECAST

8,1 273

TIERCE

8,1,12 1,015

TRIO

1,8,12 246

FIRST 4

1,7,8,12 2,020

QUARTET

8,1,12,7 21,366

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 15

8TH DOUBLE

1/1 112

1/8,11 73.5