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Sha Tin · 2022-03-12 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PACKING TREADMILL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/2, with SCIENCE PATCH second and GOOD BEAUTY third. The 1.9 favourite FUN N GLORY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PACKING TREADMILL SR 1.09.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 9 5.3 2-1/2
2 4 SCIENCE PATCH B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 6 10.0 2-1/2
3 12 GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 31.0 3
4 8 FUN N GLORY TT J Moreira · W Y So 4 1.9 4
5 9 GALLANT HERO H Bentley · D J Hall 5 88.0 4-1/2
6 2 BIRDSVILLE B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 43.0 4-3/4
7 1 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB A Badel · R Gibson 7 67.0 5-1/4
8 5 HAPPILY FRIENDS V L Ferraris · K H Ting 11 44.0 5-3/4
9 11 MOERAKI B L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 5.9 5-3/4
10 10 UNITED ENDEAVORS H1 H T Mo · L Ho 1 169.0 6-1/4
11 7 DOUBLE SHOW SR1/TT1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte 3 38.0 7
12 6 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 10 9.6 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING TREADMILL2. SCIENCE PATCH+2.5L3. GOOD BEAUTY+3L4. FUN N GLORY+4L5. GALLANT HERO+4.5L6. BIRDSVILLE+4.75L7. TURIN WARRIOR+5.25L8. HAPPILY FRIENDS+5.75L9. MOERAKI+5.75L10. UNITED ENDEAVORS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FUN N GLORY (28.5%) finished 4th — the winner PACKING TREADMILL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 FUN N GLORY 28.5% 3.51 4
2 3 PACKING TREADMILL 24.0% 4.17 1
3 4 SCIENCE PATCH 7.6% 13.14 2
4 12 GOOD BEAUTY 6.6% 15.25 3
5 6 BRAVE DREAMS 6.4% 15.70 12
6 7 DOUBLE SHOW 5.6% 17.90 11
7 5 HAPPILY FRIENDS 5.2% 19.22 8
8 9 GALLANT HERO 3.9% 25.84 5
9 11 MOERAKI 3.7% 27.13 9
10 10 UNITED ENDEAVORS 3.6% 28.08 10
11 2 BIRDSVILLE 3.3% 30.14 6
12 1 TURIN WARRIOR 1.8% 56.48 7
FUN N GLORYPACKING TREADMILL — wonSCIENCE PATCHGOOD BEAUTYBRAVE DREAMSDOUBLE SHOWHAPPILY FRIENDSGALLANT HEROMOERAKIUNITED ENDEAVORSBIRDSVILLETURIN WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

3 16

4 26.5

12 58

QUINELLA

3,4 289.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 75.5

3,12 145.5

4,12 271

FORECAST

3,4 474

TIERCE

3,4,12 5,351

TRIO

3,4,12 1,522

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 437

QUARTET

3,4,12,8 14,378

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14

A3

5TH DOUBLE

1/3 118

1/4 63.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,8,13/1,2,8/Any Combination 9,248