沙田 · 2022-05-01 · 17:47
第 11場
2022-05-01沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由J Moreira策騎、F C Lor訓練的SAKEWIN勝出，贏出3。DROPS OF GOD獲得亞軍；PHOENIX LIGHT獲得季軍。頭馬以1.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SAKEWIN 1.10.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 1.6 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | DROPS OF GOD P- K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 6.6 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | PHOENIX LIGHT H1 A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | WAR WEAPON H/P/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 10 | 41.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | OUR LUCKY GLORY SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 13.0 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | SHINING GEM B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 12.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | HARMONY WIN WIN SR/XB H W Lai · D J Whyte | H W Lai | D J Whyte | 12 | 22.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 9 | 43.0 | 12 |
| 9 | 3 | MR VALIANT H/XB B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 11 | 14.0 | 14 |
| 10 | 8 | COMMANDING MISSILE B1 M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 8 | 77.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT V-/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 6 | 96.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | RECIPROCATION XB1/TT1 V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 2 | 101.0 | 18-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SAKEWIN | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | DROPS OF GOD | 8.3% | 12.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SHINING GEM | 6.3% | 15.91 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | PHOENIX LIGHT | 3.9% | 25.38 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | MR VALIANT | 3.9% | 25.83 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | REGENCY BO BO | 3.0% | 32.81 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | WAR WEAPON | 2.8% | 36.11 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 1.6% | 63.91 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | HARMONY WIN WIN | 1.3% | 75.07 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 1.3% | 75.40 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 1.3% | 75.94 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | RECIPROCATION | 1.2% | 84.13 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 16
PLACE
1 18
11 23.5
12 11
QUINELLA
1,12 48.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 77
1,12 22.5
11,12 37.5
FORECAST
12,1 63
TIERCE
12,1,11 377
TRIO
1,11,12 105
FIRST 4
1,7,11,12 755
QUARTET
12,1,11,7 5,721
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
3/1 51.5
3/12 99
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 14.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,7/1,11,12 9,172
SIX UP
2,3/3,11/7,12/5,10/3,7/1,12 13,065
2/11/12/5/3/12 1,198,886
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
5/3/1 899
5/3/12 2,271