沙田 · 2022-05-01 · 14:38
第 5場
2022-05-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由Z Purton策騎、D A Hayes訓練的ORIENTAL SMOKE勝出，贏出3。VICTORY SCHOLARS獲得亞軍；AMIGOS GIGGLE獲得季軍。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT- 1.11.10 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | VICTORY SCHOLARS B- L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 10 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 5 | 5.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | EL JEFE B/XB M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 7 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | FELIX THE KING CP V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 13 | 192.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | EVER FORCE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | CELESTIAL STEED TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | M M NEBULA CP/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 14 | 68.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 14 | HAPPY PROFIT TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 6 | 84.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H/P/XB/TT- H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 11 | 126.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | HUNKY DORY B/TT1 C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 3 | 95.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY EIGHT R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
| — | 6 | SMART LEADER C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 40.9% | 2.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5 |
| 3 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 8.2% | 12.14 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | CELESTIAL STEED | 7.8% | 12.85 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 7.5% | 13.36 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE | 5.8% | 17.17 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | EVER FORCE | 4.0% | 24.87 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | EL JEFE | 3.9% | 25.79 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | M M NEBULA | 2.4% | 41.83 | 9 |
| 10 | 14 | HAPPY PROFIT | 1.2% | 83.72 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | HUNKY DORY | 0.8% | 123.92 | 13 |
| 12 | 12 | FELIX THE KING | 0.5% | 219.58 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 0.4% | 246.07 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 20
PLACE
1 30.5
2 10.1
13 18.5
QUINELLA
1,2 117.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 47.5
1,13 87
2,13 22
FORECAST
2,1 226
TIERCE
2,1,13 728
TRIO
1,2,13 160
FIRST 4
1,2,10,13 322
QUARTET
2,1,13,10 4,555
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/1>2,6,13 774
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16
4TH DOUBLE
3/1 44.5
3/2,6 36.5