Sha Tin · 2022-05-01 · 14:38
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ORIENTAL SMOKE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and AMIGOS GIGGLE third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT- 1.11.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | VICTORY SCHOLARS B- L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 10 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 5 | 5.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | EL JEFE B/XB M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 7 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | FELIX THE KING CP V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 13 | 192.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | EVER FORCE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | CELESTIAL STEED TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | M M NEBULA CP/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 14 | 68.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 14 | HAPPY PROFIT TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 6 | 84.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H/P/XB/TT- H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 11 | 126.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | HUNKY DORY B/TT1 C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 3 | 95.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY EIGHT R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
| — | 6 | SMART LEADER C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 40.9% | 2.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5 |
| 3 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 8.2% | 12.14 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | CELESTIAL STEED | 7.8% | 12.85 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 7.5% | 13.36 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE | 5.8% | 17.17 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | EVER FORCE | 4.0% | 24.87 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | EL JEFE | 3.9% | 25.79 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | M M NEBULA | 2.4% | 41.83 | 9 |
| 10 | 14 | HAPPY PROFIT | 1.2% | 83.72 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | HUNKY DORY | 0.8% | 123.92 | 13 |
| 12 | 12 | FELIX THE KING | 0.5% | 219.58 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 0.4% | 246.07 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 20
PLACE
1 30.5
2 10.1
13 18.5
QUINELLA
1,2 117.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 47.5
1,13 87
2,13 22
FORECAST
2,1 226
TIERCE
2,1,13 728
TRIO
1,2,13 160
FIRST 4
1,2,10,13 322
QUARTET
2,1,13,10 4,555
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/1>2,6,13 774
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16
4TH DOUBLE
3/1 44.5
3/2,6 36.5