Sha Tin · 2022-05-01 · 14:06

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course B 9 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. GALAXY WITNESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with WINNER METHOD second and EN POINTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.85

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly 1.22.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	3	127 lb	1.6	N
2	1	WINNER METHOD Led early TT K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	2	133 lb	6.2	N
3	4	EN POINTE CP Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	4	126 lb	4.3	4
4	7	POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	8	117 lb	37.0	6-3/4
5	2	PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly SR B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	5	128 lb	11.0	7-1/2
6	8	COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	9	116 lb	30.0	9-1/4
7	5	CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	6	123 lb	40.0	10-1/2
8	6	COMING PATCH CP-/H/B1 H Bentley · K H Ting	H Bentley	K H Ting	1	119 lb	80.0	12
9	9	EZRA B H T Mo · A T Millard	H T Mo	A T Millard	7	114 lb	71.0	12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick GALAXY WITNESS (45.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	GALAXY WITNESS	45.2%	2.21	1	1.6
2	4	EN POINTE	29.9%	3.34	3	4.3
3	1	WINNER METHOD	11.2%	8.94	2	6.2
4	2	PRINCE ALEX	4.8%	20.97	5	11.0
5	8	COUNTRY BOY	3.6%	27.62	6	30.0
6	7	POWERFUL WINGS	2.0%	50.54	4	37.0
7	6	COMING PATCH	1.2%	81.94	8	80.0
8	9	EZRA	1.2%	82.76	9	71.0
9	5	CLASSIC ARCHI	0.9%	107.74	7	40.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 16

PLACE

1 13.5

3 11

4 12

QUINELLA

1,3 46

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 20

1,4 27.5

3,4 15.5

FORECAST

3,1 64

TIERCE

3,1,4 140

TRIO

1,3,4 37

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 139

QUARTET

3,1,4,7 1,140

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 23.5

2/3 24.5

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