Sha Tin · 2022-05-01 · 15:36
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. NICHOLSON RETURNS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Hall, won by 4-1/2, with BEAUTY SPIRIT second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite PRESIDENT'S CHOICE finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B 1.36.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 11 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | STUNNING IMPACT B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 4.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | PALACE PAL Closed strongly C Wong · T P Yung | C Wong | T P Yung | 12 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | CELESTIAL WARRIOR CP1/TT H Bentley · K W Lui | H Bentley | K W Lui | 4 | 32.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | EVER LAUGH B/TT L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 6 | 22.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 9 | 20.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | CHEVALIER PRINCE CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 6.5 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | SHINY TWO V/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 10 | 67.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 7 | 3.5 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | BUDDY SPIRIT Led early B C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 8 | 66.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | BOOM STITCH B B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 5 | 6.0 | 16-1/2 |
| — | 7 | ACCELERANDO Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 22.8% | 4.38 | 10 |
| 2 | 12 | STUNNING IMPACT | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | BOOM STITCH | 14.4% | 6.95 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | CHEVALIER PRINCE | 11.2% | 8.90 | 8 |
| 5 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 10.4% | 9.58 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.6% | 21.64 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 4.0% | 24.79 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | EVER LAUGH | 3.4% | 29.54 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | CELESTIAL WARRIOR | 2.7% | 37.02 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | PALACE PAL | 2.5% | 40.28 | 4 |
| 11 | 13 | SHINY TWO | 1.9% | 52.89 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | BUDDY SPIRIT | 1.3% | 74.71 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 112.5
PLACE
3 27.5
11 34
12 18
QUINELLA
3,11 476.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 139
3,12 84
11,12 90.5
FORECAST
11,3 1,360
TIERCE
11,3,12 5,278
TRIO
3,11,12 680
FIRST 4
2,3,11,12 5,762
QUARTET
11,3,12,2 136,080
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 26
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
2/3 44.5
2/11 399
TRIPLE TRIO
1>2,6,13/2,3,8/3,11,12 547,072
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1>2,6,13/2,3,8/Any Combination 692