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Sha Tin · 2022-05-01 · 16:37

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. FREE FOAL, ridden by B Shinn and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with MY INTELLIGENT second and PLIKCLONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite HAPPY DAY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.24.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FREE FOAL Closed strongly CP 1.24.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · F C Lor 4 14.0 N
2 10 MY INTELLIGENT Closed strongly TT K Teetan · L Ho 14 5.5 N
3 12 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly A Hamelin · D J Hall 3 13.0 1/2
4 7 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly P1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 1 24.0 1
5 2 HAPPY DAY Closed strongly TT J Moreira · W Y So 9 3.7 2
6 14 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly CP1/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 7 53.0 4-1/2
7 4 LIFELINE VISION CP1 L Currie · D A Hayes 12 54.0 4-1/2
8 9 AURORA HERO Closed strongly K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 10 108.0 5-1/4
9 3 KASI FARASI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C H Yip 8 35.0 6-1/2
10 8 TUNG HAYE HAYE Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 13 179.0 10-1/4
11 1 DOUBLE SIX POP A Badel · A T Millard 2 4.4 11
12 11 SUPER HORNET B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 12.0 12-1/4
13 13 CHIU CHOW BROTHER Led early B M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 10.0 14
14 6 GENERAL WINNER CP Z Purton · K H Ting 11 11.0 71-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FREE FOAL—2. MY INTELLIGENT+0.05L3. PLIKCLONE+0.5L4. SURE JOYFUL+1L5. HAPPY DAY+2L6. CIRCUIT ELITE+4.5L7. LIFELINE VISION+4.5L8. AURORA HERO+5.25L9. KASI FARASI+6.5L10. TUNG HAYE HAYE+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HAPPY DAY (23.1%) finished 5th — the winner FREE FOAL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HAPPY DAY 23.1% 4.32 5
2 6 GENERAL WINNER 14.3% 6.97 14
3 5 FREE FOAL 13.9% 7.18 1
4 10 MY INTELLIGENT 10.9% 9.16 2
5 1 DOUBLE SIX POP 7.5% 13.25 11
6 7 SURE JOYFUL 5.8% 17.13 4
7 12 PLIKCLONE 5.8% 17.15 3
8 13 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 5.8% 17.18 13
9 14 CIRCUIT ELITE 3.2% 31.54 6
10 4 LIFELINE VISION 3.0% 33.84 7
11 3 KASI FARASI 2.6% 38.45 9
12 9 AURORA HERO 1.8% 54.30 8
13 11 SUPER HORNET 1.5% 66.26 12
14 8 TUNG HAYE HAYE 0.6% 179.10 10
HAPPY DAYGENERAL WINNERFREE FOAL — wonMY INTELLIGENTDOUBLE SIX POPSURE JOYFULPLIKCLONECHIU CHOW BROTHERCIRCUIT ELITELIFELINE VISIONKASI FARASIAURORA HEROSUPER HORNETTUNG HAYE HAYE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 142.5

PLACE

5 39

10 20

12 36

QUINELLA

5,10 414.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 133.5

5,12 207

10,12 116

FORECAST

5,10 1,282

TIERCE

5,10,12 8,031

TRIO

5,10,12 1,066

FIRST 4

5,7,10,12 6,507

QUARTET

5,10,12,7 155,986

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 19.5

8TH DOUBLE

12/5 1,981

12/10 141.5

← Race 8 Race 10 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99