Sha Tin · 2022-05-01 · 17:13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. PACKING TREADMILL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with ESCAPE ROUTE second and BUZZINGA third. The 1.4 favourite BUZZINGA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.52

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	PACKING TREADMILL SR 1.10.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	10	120 lb	4.7	1-1/2
2	7	ESCAPE ROUTE H V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	4	116 lb	71.0	1-1/2
3	1	BUZZINGA TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	133 lb	1.4	1-3/4
4	2	KEEFY J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	5	128 lb	14.0	3-1/4
5	4	BRILLIANT WAY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	11	117 lb	9.3	3-1/4
6	6	TAMRA BLITZ H1/SR1/XB1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	9	117 lb	51.0	4-1/4
7	9	PRIDE OF EIGHT H T Mo · D J Hall	H T Mo	D J Hall	7	113 lb	156.0	4-1/2
8	8	RACING FIGHTER B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	6	114 lb	48.0	7-1/2
9	10	EASY SNIP TT1 C Wong · T P Yung	C Wong	T P Yung	8	109 lb	125.0	8-1/4
10	5	RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT R Maia · R Gibson	R Maia	R Gibson	2	117 lb	49.0	11-1/4
11	11	WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	3	114 lb	19.0	21-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick BUZZINGA (34.8%) finished 3rd — the winner PACKING TREADMILL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BUZZINGA	34.8%	2.88	3	1.4
2	3	PACKING TREADMILL	29.9%	3.34	1	4.7
3	2	KEEFY	11.3%	8.87	4	14.0
4	4	BRILLIANT WAY	9.6%	10.46	5	9.3
5	5	RIGHT HONOURABLE	5.1%	19.56	10	49.0
6	11	WAR OF COURAGE	3.0%	33.78	11	19.0
7	8	RACING FIGHTER	2.9%	34.88	8	48.0
8	7	ESCAPE ROUTE	1.8%	55.28	2	71.0
9	6	TAMRA BLITZ	0.8%	129.17	6	51.0
10	10	EASY SNIP	0.5%	194.67	9	125.0
11	9	PRIDE OF EIGHT	0.4%	231.18	7	156.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 47

PLACE

1 10.1

3 13.5

7 99.5

QUINELLA

3,7 1,530.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 15

1,7 200.5

3,7 284

FORECAST

3,7 2,185

TIERCE

3,7,1 7,152

TRIO

1,3,7 582

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 775

QUARTET

3,7,1,2 42,149

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 11

A2 —

A3 —

9TH DOUBLE

5/3 1,241.5

5/7 1,689

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