沙田 · 2022-06-25 · 14:02
第 3場
2022-06-25沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、R Gibson訓練的BLOTTING PAPER勝出，贏出3-3/4。SUN OF MAKFI獲得亞軍；RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BLOTTING PAPER 後段發力 TT 1.38.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 2 | 3.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI 後段發力 XB B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 9 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 B-/XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 8.3 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | ROYAL CAMPBELL 早段領放 V L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 6 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION 後段發力 CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | METHANE TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 1 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SMART PATCH 後段發力 B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 5.8 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | CROWN AVENUE 後段發力 H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 14 | 23.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CHIRON CP/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 8.1 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 12 | 46.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | GOOD BEAUTY 後段發力 CP/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 13 | 83.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | NOBODY KNOWS H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 4 | 94.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | GOLD COMET B-/V1 M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 11 | 39.0 | 19 |
| 14 | 12 | AHEAD A HEAD B A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 8 | 41.0 | 46-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BLOTTING PAPER | 28.3% | 3.54 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | METHANE | 15.1% | 6.61 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | CHIRON | 7.9% | 12.60 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI | 7.0% | 14.27 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | SMART PATCH | 7.0% | 14.34 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | ROYAL CAMPBELL | 5.3% | 18.84 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.6% | 21.53 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.6% | 21.93 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | AHEAD A HEAD | 4.2% | 23.64 | 14 |
| 10 | 13 | CROWN AVENUE | 3.8% | 25.98 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | HANDSOME REBEL | 3.6% | 27.68 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | GOOD BEAUTY | 3.0% | 33.01 | 11 |
| 13 | 11 | NOBODY KNOWS | 2.9% | 34.05 | 12 |
| 14 | 4 | GOLD COMET | 2.5% | 39.80 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 36
PLACE
1 25.5
2 16
5 34
QUINELLA
2,5 151
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 58
1,5 130
2,5 53.5
FORECAST
2,5 292
TIERCE
2,5,1 1,287
TRIO
1,2,5 275
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 691
QUARTET
2,5,1,3 12,866
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
3/2 75.5
3/5 40.5
3 PICK 1
A1 25
A3 —
A2 —