沙田 · 2022-09-18 · 15:03
第 5場
2022-09-18沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、C W Chang訓練的PRESIDENT'S CHOICE勝出，贏出1。TAILOR MADE獲得亞軍；CHATER PINS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.9倍大熱門TURQUOISE ALPHA跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 後段發力 1.34.88 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | TAILOR MADE 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 3 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 14 | CHATER PINS 後段發力 SR C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 9 | 28.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | DARCI JOY 後段發力 B/TT1 Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY V J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 6.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SMILING TIME 後段發力 V/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 14 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA 後段發力 CP/H/XB Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 3.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | EZRA 後段發力 B L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 12 | 29.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | FLYING MIGHTY 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | PALACE PAL C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | RED ELYSEES B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 13 | 15.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BORN THE SAME DAY 早段領放 H/P1/TT- A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 11 | 38.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON B-/PC1/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 2 | 86.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | KOWLOON GREAT CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 5 | 22.0 | 14-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 12.8% | 7.78 | 7 |
| 2 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY | 12.1% | 8.30 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | TAILOR MADE | 11.8% | 8.50 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | PALACE PAL | 9.9% | 10.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 13 | FLYING MIGHTY | 8.9% | 11.21 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 8.6% | 11.62 | 1 |
| 7 | 14 | CHATER PINS | 8.0% | 12.57 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 6.0% | 16.59 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | RED ELYSEES | 5.3% | 19.00 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 5.2% | 19.16 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | SMILING TIME | 4.6% | 21.60 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | KOWLOON GREAT | 3.5% | 28.20 | 14 |
| 13 | 6 | EZRA | 2.3% | 43.81 | 8 |
| 14 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON | 1.0% | 102.83 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 51.5
PLACE
11 18
12 72
14 62.5
QUINELLA
11,12 820
QUINELLA PLACE
11,12 241.5
11,14 213
12,14 659
FORECAST
11,12 1,345
TIERCE
11,12,14 19,271
TRIO
11,12,14 5,343
FIRST 4
1,11,12,14 6,557
QUARTET
11,12,14,1 176,670
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 22.5
4TH DOUBLE
11/11 633.5
11/12 391