Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 15:03
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1, with TAILOR MADE second and CHATER PINS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite TURQUOISE ALPHA finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly 1.34.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 3 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 14 | CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 9 | 28.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT1 Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY V J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 6.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 14 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 3.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | EZRA Closed strongly B L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 12 | 29.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | PALACE PAL C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | RED ELYSEES B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 13 | 15.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BORN THE SAME DAY Led early H/P1/TT- A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 11 | 38.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON B-/PC1/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 2 | 86.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | KOWLOON GREAT CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 5 | 22.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 12.8% | 7.78 | 7 |
| 2 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY | 12.1% | 8.30 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | TAILOR MADE | 11.8% | 8.50 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | PALACE PAL | 9.9% | 10.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 13 | FLYING MIGHTY | 8.9% | 11.21 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 8.6% | 11.62 | 1 |
| 7 | 14 | CHATER PINS | 8.0% | 12.57 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 6.0% | 16.59 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | RED ELYSEES | 5.3% | 19.00 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 5.2% | 19.16 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | SMILING TIME | 4.6% | 21.60 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | KOWLOON GREAT | 3.5% | 28.20 | 14 |
| 13 | 6 | EZRA | 2.3% | 43.81 | 8 |
| 14 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON | 1.0% | 102.83 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 51.5
PLACE
11 18
12 72
14 62.5
QUINELLA
11,12 820
QUINELLA PLACE
11,12 241.5
11,14 213
12,14 659
FORECAST
11,12 1,345
TIERCE
11,12,14 19,271
TRIO
11,12,14 5,343
FIRST 4
1,11,12,14 6,557
QUARTET
11,12,14,1 176,670
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 22.5
4TH DOUBLE
11/11 633.5
11/12 391