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Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SETANTA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with HAPPY SHARING second and SUPER WINNER third. The 2.7 favourite BUNDLE OF CHARM finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SETANTA B/TT 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 8.3 N
2 9 HAPPY SHARING TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 1 3.0 N
3 8 SUPER WINNER TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 2 14.0 1/2
4 1 STAR BRITE CP/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 6 13.0 1-1/4
5 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM A Badel · J Size 8 2.7 1-1/2
6 5 READY TO WIN CP/XB/H1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 7.7 6-1/2
7 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 4 19.0 7-1/2
8 2 EXCELLENT DADDY TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 22.0 11-3/4
9 7 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 7 41.0 30-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SETANTA2. HAPPY SHARING+0.05L3. SUPER WINNER+0.5L4. STAR BRITE+1.25L5. BUNDLE OF CHARM+1.5L6. READY TO WIN+6.5L7. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+7.5L8. EXCELLENT DADDY+11.75L9. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+30.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF CHARM (35.3%) finished 5th — the winner SETANTA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM 35.3% 2.84 5
2 6 SETANTA 14.0% 7.12 1
3 5 READY TO WIN 13.0% 7.72 6
4 9 HAPPY SHARING 12.7% 7.84 2
5 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 7.7% 13.06 7
6 1 STAR BRITE 7.2% 13.87 4
7 2 EXCELLENT DADDY 6.0% 16.76 8
8 8 SUPER WINNER 2.6% 38.81 3
9 7 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 1.6% 63.30 9
BUNDLE OF CHARMSETANTA — wonREADY TO WINHAPPY SHARINGCALIFORNIA CONCORDSTAR BRITEEXCELLENT DADDYSUPER WINNERHIGHLY PROACTIVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 83

PLACE

6 24

8 29.5

9 13.5

QUINELLA

6,9 103.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 110.5

6,9 38.5

8,9 55

FORECAST

6,9 280

TIERCE

6,9,8 1,723

TRIO

6,8,9 273

FIRST 4

1,6,8,9 791

QUARTET

6,9,8,1 15,981

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,12,13/6,8,9 1,425,147

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 31

A3

6TH DOUBLE

13/6 1,652.5

13/9 196