Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with LUCKY RUBY second and THUNDERSTRIKE third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.31

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · D J Hall	Y L Chung	D J Hall	6	125 lb	2.6	1-1/4
2	7	LUCKY RUBY B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man	S De Sousa	K L Man	4	118 lb	12.0	1-1/4
3	2	THUNDERSTRIKE B/H L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	3	129 lb	6.7	2-1/2
4	3	STAND UP K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	8	125 lb	10.0	2-3/4
5	8	CHIRON CP/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes	M F Poon	D A Hayes	1	114 lb	17.0	5-1/4
6	5	LADY FIRST H-/CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang	M Chadwick	C W Chang	7	122 lb	16.0	5-1/2
7	6	E BROTHER B/TT J Moreira · K L Man	J Moreira	K L Man	5	118 lb	3.8	6
8	4	HAPPY TANGO B Z Purton · Y S Tsui	Z Purton	Y S Tsui	2	123 lb	8.2	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick HAPPY TANGO (17.6%) finished 8th — the winner QUADRUPLE DOUBLE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	HAPPY TANGO	17.6%	5.67	8	8.2
2	6	E BROTHER	15.2%	6.59	7	3.8
3	8	CHIRON	14.1%	7.07	5	17.0
4	7	LUCKY RUBY	13.6%	7.33	2	12.0
5	5	LADY FIRST	13.1%	7.65	6	16.0
6	1	QUADRUPLE DOUBLE	11.0%	9.09	1	2.6
7	3	STAND UP	8.5%	11.72	4	10.0
8	2	THUNDERSTRIKE	6.8%	14.68	3	6.7

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 26

PLACE

1 12

2 18

7 31.5

QUINELLA

1,7 160.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 45

1,7 57.5

2,7 125

FORECAST

1,7 284

TIERCE

1,7,2 1,615

TRIO

1,2,7 365

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 521

QUARTET

1,7,2,3 7,450

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/1 169.5

12/7 159

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 15.5

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