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Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 14:32

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHIU CHOW BROTHER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with U W BROTHER second and BOYS PARTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite G ONE EXCELLENT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CHIU CHOW BROTHER Closed strongly B 1.22.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 8 11.0 1-3/4
2 9 U W BROTHER Led early K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 19.0 1-3/4
3 10 BOYS PARTY Closed strongly XB- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 9.4 2-3/4
4 8 G ONE EXCELLENT V-/B2/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 1 4.0 2-3/4
5 7 EL JEFE Closed strongly TT- A Badel · C H Yip 11 12.0 4-1/2
6 5 BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 4 16.0 4-3/4
7 3 HAPPY GATHERING Z Purton · K L Man 3 17.0 5-1/2
8 4 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly P-/XB/PC1 J Moreira · C Fownes 7 4.8 6
9 14 OH BRAVO TT M F Poon · W Y So 6 22.0 6-1/2
10 13 SEA MONARCH M Chadwick · C W Chang 9 6.9 6-1/2
11 1 ALL IS READY Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P F Yiu 13 29.0 7-3/4
12 6 FELIX THE KING CP/TT1 L Currie · C W Chang 5 25.0 8
13 12 GIVE WAY PLEASE CP/H/XB/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 25.0 9-1/2
14 2 MANY WINS B C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 79.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHIU CHOW BROTHER2. U W BROTHER+1.75L3. BOYS PARTY+2.75L4. G ONE EXCELLENT+2.75L5. EL JEFE+4.5L6. BEST FOR YOU+4.75L7. HAPPY GATHERING+5.5L8. AMAZING NEWS+6L9. OH BRAVO+6.5L10. SEA MONARCH+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SEA MONARCH (11.8%) finished 10th — the winner CHIU CHOW BROTHER was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 SEA MONARCH 11.8% 8.49 10
2 4 AMAZING NEWS 11.3% 8.82 8
3 8 G ONE EXCELLENT 11.1% 9.02 4
4 3 HAPPY GATHERING 9.3% 10.70 7
5 10 BOYS PARTY 9.3% 10.78 3
6 7 EL JEFE 8.6% 11.66 5
7 9 U W BROTHER 8.5% 11.80 2
8 5 BEST FOR YOU 6.3% 15.88 6
9 14 OH BRAVO 6.0% 16.56 9
10 6 FELIX THE KING 5.2% 19.34 12
11 11 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 4.7% 21.30 1
12 12 GIVE WAY PLEASE 3.6% 27.94 13
13 1 ALL IS READY 3.0% 33.60 11
14 2 MANY WINS 1.4% 72.59 14
SEA MONARCHAMAZING NEWSG ONE EXCELLENTHAPPY GATHERINGBOYS PARTYEL JEFEU W BROTHERBEST FOR YOUOH BRAVOFELIX THE KINGCHIU CHOW BROTHER — wonGIVE WAY PLEASEALL IS READYMANY WINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 119

PLACE

9 65.5

10 31.5

11 34

QUINELLA

9,11 942

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 352

9,11 313

10,11 207.5

FORECAST

11,9 2,119

TIERCE

11,9,10 15,062

TRIO

9,10,11 3,473

FIRST 4

8,9,10,11 3,581

QUARTET

11,9,10,8 110,915

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,7/9,10,11 277,270

3 PICK 1

A2 23

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

1/9 139

1/11 358