Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 13:01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CALIFORNIA VANES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with MIRACLES second and LUCK STAR third. The 2.8 favourite TELECOM MISSILE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 7 | 3.7 | N |
| 2 | 8 | MIRACLES B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 8.5 | N |
| 3 | 5 | LUCK STAR H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 2 | 4.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/H1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | TELECOM MISSILE B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 2.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | VIVA A LA H/P/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 3 | 39.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | WIN WIN CHARITY H-/XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 11.0 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | DREAM CATCHER H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 6 | 46.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VANES | 38.7% | 2.58 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | TELECOM MISSILE | 25.3% | 3.95 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCK STAR | 16.4% | 6.09 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 6.4% | 15.53 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | WIN WIN CHARITY | 4.4% | 22.90 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | MIRACLES | 4.3% | 23.26 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | VIVA A LA | 2.7% | 36.69 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | DREAM CATCHER | 1.7% | 59.12 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 37
PLACE
1 13
5 15
8 23
QUINELLA
1,8 151
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 27.5
1,8 50
5,8 51
FORECAST
1,8 250
TIERCE
1,8,5 915
TRIO
1,5,8 143
FIRST 4
1,5,7,8 271
QUARTET
1,8,5,7 4,211
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16