Sha Tin · 2022-09-18 · 15:36
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BAEBAE TSOI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with ON EXCEL STAR second and INDIGENOUS REALM third. The winner led throughout. The 5.7 favourite CHEERY finished 13th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | BAEBAE TSOI Wire to wire B-/CP2/TT 1.22.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 12 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | ON EXCEL STAR B/XB H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 1 | 32.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | INDIGENOUS REALM Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | KASI FARASI Closed strongly S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 7 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | HK DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 4 | 59.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 8.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | LIFELINE VISION C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 3 | 7.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | PRIDE OF EIGHT XB L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 2 | 6.2 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | HAPPY DAY TT Y L Chung · W Y So | Y L Chung | W Y So | 10 | 6.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | WIN WIN B H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 9 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | PROSECCO Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 8 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 3 | CHEERY B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.7 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PROSECCO | 17.3% | 5.77 | 12 |
| 2 | 1 | HAPPY DAY | 11.8% | 8.48 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | CHEERY | 11.8% | 8.51 | 13 |
| 4 | 2 | HK DRAGON | 9.8% | 10.16 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | LIFELINE VISION | 9.0% | 11.16 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | INDIGENOUS REALM | 8.6% | 11.67 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | PRIDE OF EIGHT | 7.7% | 12.97 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | VOYAGE STAR | 6.5% | 15.46 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | WIN WIN | 5.5% | 18.03 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | BAEBAE TSOI | 4.5% | 22.35 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | KASI FARASI | 3.8% | 26.13 | 4 |
| 12 | 11 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 2.0% | 49.02 | 6 |
| 13 | 12 | ON EXCEL STAR | 1.7% | 60.10 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 237.5
PLACE
7 40.5
12 97
13 77.5
QUINELLA
12,13 3,220.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,12 773.5
7,13 575
12,13 712
FORECAST
13,12 4,656
TIERCE
13,12,7 136,085
TRIO
7,12,13 17,257
FIRST 4
7,9,12,13 37,911
QUARTET
13,12,7,9 1,102,570
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 20
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/12 553
11/13 1,787
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
9,10,11/11,12,14/Any Combination 369,886