跑馬地 · 2022-11-30 · 22:58
第 8場
2022-11-30跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由H Bowman策騎、C Fownes訓練的NEARLY FINE勝出，贏出1-1/4。TIANCHI MONSTER獲得亞軍；COMET SPLENDIDO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門COMET SPLENDIDO跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NEARLY FINE 後段發力 TT 1.48.78 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | TIANCHI MONSTER 後段發力 M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 9 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | COMET SPLENDIDO 早段領放 TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 1 | 2.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER 後段發力 M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 4 | 52.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | ENSURED 後段發力 C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 3 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 2 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS 後段發力 TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SEAWEED FORTUNE V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE H V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | INTREPID WINNER B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 5 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SAVVY KINGMAN L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 12 | 25.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | PRAGMATISM L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 6 | 84.0 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 12.0% | 8.33 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | NEARLY FINE | 11.4% | 8.80 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | ENSURED | 10.6% | 9.42 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | INTREPID WINNER | 10.6% | 9.44 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 6.4% | 15.73 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 4.4% | 22.49 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 4.2% | 23.84 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 3.6% | 27.94 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 2.7% | 36.83 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER | 2.1% | 48.36 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | PRAGMATISM | 1.6% | 63.72 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 37
PLACE
1 40.5
2 17
5 12.5
QUINELLA
1,2 260
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 92.5
1,5 79.5
2,5 26.5
FORECAST
2,1 339
TIERCE
2,1,5 1,450
TRIO
1,2,5 343
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 2,129
QUARTET
2,1,5,3 41,827
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,10,11/1,2,5 9,587
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 80
3/2 126.5
SIX UP
4,8/1,11/3,9/10,11/3,11/1,2 12,670
8/1/9/10/3/2 119,548
- —
1 [C S Shum] —
2 [M Chadwick] —
TREBLE
10/3/1 614
10/3/2 2,512