Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 22:58
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT 1.48.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 9 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | COMET SPLENDIDO Led early TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 1 | 2.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 4 | 52.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ENSURED Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 3 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 2 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SEAWEED FORTUNE V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE H V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | INTREPID WINNER B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 5 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | SAVVY KINGMAN L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 12 | 25.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | PRAGMATISM L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 6 | 84.0 | 9-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NEARLY FINE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with TIANCHI MONSTER second and COMET SPLENDIDO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite COMET SPLENDIDO finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 12.0% | 8.33 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | NEARLY FINE | 11.4% | 8.80 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | ENSURED | 10.6% | 9.42 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | INTREPID WINNER | 10.6% | 9.44 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 6.4% | 15.73 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 4.4% | 22.49 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 4.2% | 23.84 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 3.6% | 27.94 | 2 |
| 10 | 0 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 2.7% | 36.83 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | PRIME MINISTER | 2.1% | 48.36 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | PRAGMATISM | 1.6% | 63.72 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 37
PLACE
1 40.5
2 17
5 12.5
QUINELLA
1,2 260
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 92.5
1,5 79.5
2,5 26.5
FORECAST
2,1 339
TIERCE
2,1,5 1,450
TRIO
1,2,5 343
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 2,129
QUARTET
2,1,5,3 41,827
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,10,11/1,2,5 9,587
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 80
3/2 126.5
SIX UP
4,8/1,11/3,9/10,11/3,11/1,2 12,670
8/1/9/10/3/2 119,548
2 [M Chadwick] —
- —
1 [C S Shum] —
TREBLE
10/3/1 614
10/3/2 2,512