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Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HIGH RISE SOLDIER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SIGHT HERO second and MR FUN third. Victory came as the 5.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC-/B2 1.09.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 5.1 N
2 6 SIGHT HERO B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 3 6.1 N
3 7 MR FUN TT1 M L Yeung · C S Shum 11 14.0 1-3/4
4 8 PROSECCO H/SR L Ferraris · R Gibson 1 7.2 3-1/4
5 9 ISLAND SHINE TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 8.0 3-1/2
6 11 DOUBLE SHOW V-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 9.0 3-3/4
7 12 FARSHAD CP H Bentley · Y S Tsui 5 26.0 4
8 5 BRILLIANT LIFE V Borges · C H Yip 6 44.0 4-1/4
9 3 COMPASSION SUPER B H Bowman · K L Man 9 6.0 4-3/4
10 4 WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho 10 23.0 5-3/4
11 1 WINE AND WINE B/TT Y L Chung · T P Yung 7 7.9 5-3/4
12 10 DAZZLING FELLOW XB1/TT- C L Chau · D J Hall 12 86.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGH RISE SOLDIER2. SIGHT HERO+0.05L3. MR FUN+1.75L4. PROSECCO+3.25L5. ISLAND SHINE+3.5L6. DOUBLE SHOW+3.75L7. FARSHAD+4L8. BRILLIANT LIFE+4.25L9. COMPASSION SUPER+4.75L10. WOOD ON FIRE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ISLAND SHINE (17.5%) finished 5th — the winner HIGH RISE SOLDIER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ISLAND SHINE 17.5% 5.72 5
2 3 COMPASSION SUPER 15.1% 6.61 9
3 6 SIGHT HERO 12.0% 8.31 2
4 2 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 10.7% 9.31 1
5 11 DOUBLE SHOW 9.9% 10.09 6
6 8 PROSECCO 8.1% 12.36 4
7 10 DAZZLING FELLOW 5.7% 17.43 12
8 4 WOOD ON FIRE 5.6% 17.85 10
9 12 FARSHAD 4.8% 20.77 7
10 5 BRILLIANT LIFE 4.0% 24.95 8
11 7 MR FUN 3.2% 30.77 3
12 1 WINE AND WINE 3.2% 31.28 11
ISLAND SHINECOMPASSION SUPERSIGHT HEROHIGH RISE SOLDIER — wonDOUBLE SHOWPROSECCODAZZLING FELLOWWOOD ON FIREFARSHADBRILLIANT LIFEMR FUNWINE AND WINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 51

PLACE

2 18

6 19.5

7 52.5

QUINELLA

2,6 152

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 50.5

2,7 115

6,7 153.5

FORECAST

2,6 232

TIERCE

2,6,7 1,657

TRIO

2,6,7 354

FIRST 4

2,6,7,8 1,020

QUARTET

2,6,7,8 14,836

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/2 436.5

12/6 55

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 38

A3