Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 19:17
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TRONIC MIGHTY, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with G ONE EXCELLENT second and NEXTMODEL third. The 3.5 favourite NEXTMODEL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | TRONIC MIGHTY CP/XB2/TT 0.56.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · J Richards | M L Yeung | J Richards | 1 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT P-/B2/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 4 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | NEXTMODEL TT Y L Chung · T P Yung | Y L Chung | T P Yung | 7 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | THIS IS GUTS H-/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 2 | 36.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 6 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | FELIX THE KING CP/TT L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 5 | 91.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | RAGING BLAZE TT H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 11 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 12 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 9 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | TELECOM MISSILE B/TT K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 3 | 20.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | TOWARDS SUCCESS TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 8 | 23.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | CARRY THE DIAMOND PC H Bowman · R Gibson | H Bowman | R Gibson | 10 | 16.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 16.7% | 5.98 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | NEXTMODEL | 13.4% | 7.47 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 10.6% | 9.46 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | RAGING BLAZE | 9.4% | 10.62 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | TELECOM MISSILE | 9.1% | 11.04 | 10 |
| 6 | 10 | TOWARDS SUCCESS | 8.4% | 11.95 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 7.5% | 13.26 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | CARRY THE DIAMOND | 6.3% | 15.94 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER | 5.7% | 17.53 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | TRONIC MIGHTY | 5.3% | 18.77 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | THIS IS GUTS | 4.0% | 25.23 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | FELIX THE KING | 3.7% | 27.30 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 46
PLACE
2 15
7 17.5
12 16.5
QUINELLA
7,12 100
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 35.5
2,12 33
7,12 41
FORECAST
12,7 259
TIERCE
12,7,2 726
TRIO
2,7,12 113
FIRST 4
2,7,9,12 819
QUARTET
12,7,2,9 16,750
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 18.5
A3 —