Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 20:21
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BRIGHT KID, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-3/4, with VINCY second and WONDER YEARS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite VINCY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB 2.14.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 4 | 7.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | VINCY Closed strongly C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 3 | 4.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 12 | 4.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | RED ELYSEES B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 6 | 7.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly P1/TT L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 11 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | CIRCUIT ELITE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.8 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | PALACE PAL B1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 8.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 10 | 17.0 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 8 | 77.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 37.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER BUDDY B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 53.0 | 26-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 27.3% | 3.66 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | VINCY | 10.6% | 9.44 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 9.3% | 10.74 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR | 9.0% | 11.05 | 11 |
| 5 | 8 | BRIGHT KID | 8.8% | 11.30 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | PALACE PAL | 8.2% | 12.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | AMAZING BOY | 5.3% | 18.75 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG | 4.8% | 21.00 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | RED ELYSEES | 4.7% | 21.45 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | WONDER YEARS | 4.6% | 21.74 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPER BUDDY | 4.0% | 25.00 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | FLYING MIGHTY | 3.3% | 30.13 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 74
PLACE
4 15.5
8 25.5
11 16.5
QUINELLA
4,8 122
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 44.5
4,11 35
8,11 71.5
FORECAST
8,4 274
TIERCE
8,4,11 1,536
TRIO
4,8,11 203
FIRST 4
4,6,8,11 1,292
QUARTET
8,4,11,6 30,795
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/4 27
2/8 290.5
3 PICK 1
A1 27
A2 —
A3 —