Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 21:51
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN second and HEROIC MASTER third. The 3.4 favourite HEROIC MASTER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT 0.56.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 11 | 13.0 | HD |
| 2 | 11 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 9 | 12.0 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | HEROIC MASTER TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 10 | 3.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | SPECIAL M PC/TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 5.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | DINKUM C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 8 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 5 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 1 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | ATOMIC FORCE TT Y L Chung · C Fownes | Y L Chung | C Fownes | 2 | 4.8 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SUMMIT CHEERS TT L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 7 | 50.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | MAGIC PHOENIX B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | TEAM SPIRIT B-/CP1/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 12 | 124.0 | 26-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HEROIC MASTER | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 12.3% | 8.14 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SPECIAL M | 11.5% | 8.70 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER COMMANDER | 10.4% | 9.65 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 7.2% | 13.92 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | MAGIC PHOENIX | 6.7% | 14.99 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM | 6.3% | 15.88 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | DINKUM | 6.3% | 15.96 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | ATOMIC FORCE | 6.2% | 16.02 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 5.7% | 17.40 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | SUMMIT CHEERS | 4.0% | 25.25 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.6% | 62.48 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 138
PLACE
3 17
10 39.5
11 37.5
QUINELLA
10,11 1,018.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 118.5
3,11 83.5
10,11 286
FORECAST
10,11 1,625
TIERCE
10,11,3 7,464
TRIO
3,10,11 896
FIRST 4
2,3,10,11 582
QUARTET
10,11,3,2 22,522
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,11/3,10,11 203,327
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 29.5
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
9/10 395.5
9/11 64
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,11/Any Combination/Any Combination 393