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Happy Valley · 2022-11-30 · 21:21

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-30 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RATTAN KINGDOM, ridden by L Currie and trained by J Richards, won by 1-3/4, with OWNERS' PRAISE second and HAPPY TRIO third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · J Richards 4 2.5 1-3/4
2 3 OWNERS' PRAISE K C Leung · W Y So 3 63.0 1-3/4
3 11 HAPPY TRIO H/V L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 40.0 2-1/4
4 2 HARMONY N HOME Y L Chung · C S Shum 11 12.0 2-1/2
5 12 HAPPY GATHERING M L Yeung · K L Man 6 58.0 3-1/4
6 5 STARRY NIGHT B/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 7 19.0 4-1/4
7 4 RIGHTEOUS ARION B1/H1/TT1 L Ferraris · A S Cruz 12 106.0 4-1/2
8 8 JAZZ STEED B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 16.0 4-1/2
9 1 FLAMING PASSION TT H Bowman · F C Lor 1 3.3 5-3/4
10 6 HARDLY SWEARS CP/TT H Bentley · P C Ng 2 5.6 6
11 10 LORIZ C L Chau · P F Yiu 8 15.0 6-1/4
12 7 MULTIMORE TT H T Mo · T P Yung 10 62.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RATTAN KINGDOM2. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.75L3. HAPPY TRIO+2.25L4. HARMONY N HOME+2.5L5. HAPPY GATHERING+3.25L6. STARRY NIGHT+4.25L7. RIGHTEOUS ARION+4.5L8. JAZZ STEED+4.5L9. FLAMING PASSION+5.75L10. HARDLY SWEARS+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RATTAN KINGDOM (17.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 RATTAN KINGDOM 17.0% 5.88 1
2 1 FLAMING PASSION 14.3% 7.01 9
3 6 HARDLY SWEARS 9.3% 10.80 10
4 8 JAZZ STEED 8.9% 11.21 8
5 4 RIGHTEOUS ARION 8.8% 11.41 7
6 2 HARMONY N HOME 8.8% 11.41 4
7 10 LORIZ 7.5% 13.30 11
8 11 HAPPY TRIO 6.1% 16.26 3
9 5 STARRY NIGHT 5.7% 17.55 6
10 3 OWNERS' PRAISE 5.6% 17.92 2
11 12 HAPPY GATHERING 4.2% 23.91 5
12 7 MULTIMORE 3.9% 25.59 12
RATTAN KINGDOM — wonFLAMING PASSIONHARDLY SWEARSJAZZ STEEDRIGHTEOUS ARIONHARMONY N HOMELORIZHAPPY TRIOSTARRY NIGHTOWNERS' PRAISEHAPPY GATHERINGMULTIMORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 25.5

PLACE

3 130

9 12.5

11 74

QUINELLA

3,9 913.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 279

3,11 1,631.5

9,11 168

FORECAST

9,3 1,204

TIERCE

9,3,11 16,629

TRIO

3,9,11 5,419

FIRST 4

2,3,9,11 13,070

QUARTET

9,3,11,2 179,727

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

1/3 474

1/9 105.5