沙田 · 2022-12-04 · 15:04
第 5場
2022-12-04沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由S De Sousa策騎、C W Chang訓練的RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE勝出，贏出N。SKYEY SUPREME獲得亞軍；LEGION OF MERIT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.4倍大熱門SUN OF MAKFI跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB 1.48.58 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 12 | 5.2 | N |
| 2 | 3 | SKYEY SUPREME 早段領放 B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui | Y L Chung | K W Lui | 10 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | LEGION OF MERIT B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 1 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | WINNING STEPS 後段發力 H1/PC1 H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 3 | 169.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | COLOURFUL BARON 後段發力 B/TT V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 4 | 124.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SUN OF MAKFI XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 5 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | CHATER PINS 後段發力 SR M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 13 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | DARCI JOY B/TT C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 7 | 44.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | VIVA A LA 後段發力 H/P/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 14 | 42.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SHANGHAI DRAGON B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 11 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | MISSION BRAVO H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 2 | 13.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 13 | REGENCY MASTER B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 9 | 54.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | MOONLIGHT VISTA H/CP1/TT H N Wong · P C Ng | H N Wong | P C Ng | 8 | 120.0 | 15-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LEGION OF MERIT | 18.5% | 5.42 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | SUN OF MAKFI | 17.9% | 5.60 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 11.3% | 8.88 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | BOOM ALLIANCE | 9.2% | 10.88 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | CHATER PINS | 6.9% | 14.56 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | MISSION BRAVO | 6.6% | 15.18 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | DARCI JOY | 6.5% | 15.28 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | SKYEY SUPREME | 5.1% | 19.57 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 4.4% | 22.63 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | REGENCY MASTER | 4.2% | 23.64 | 13 |
| 11 | 8 | WINNING STEPS | 3.6% | 27.77 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | VIVA A LA | 3.5% | 28.45 | 10 |
| 13 | 5 | MOONLIGHT VISTA | 1.3% | 77.00 | 14 |
| 14 | 14 | COLOURFUL BARON | 1.0% | 95.32 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 52
PLACE
3 45.5
6 17.5
10 16
QUINELLA
3,6 399.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 116.5
3,10 119.5
6,10 35.5
FORECAST
6,3 860
TIERCE
6,3,10 4,272
TRIO
3,6,10 491
FIRST 4
3,6,8,10 15,026
QUARTET
6,3,10,8 261,570
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5
4TH DOUBLE
2/3 647
2/6 674