跑馬地 · 2022-12-07 · 18:31
第 1場
2022-12-07跑馬地第1場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Currie策騎、D A Hayes訓練的FEARLESS FIRE勝出，贏出N。TURIN WARRIOR獲得亞軍；UNITED ENDEAVORS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門KILLER INSTINCT跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE 後段發力 XB/B2 1.39.94 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 3 | 24.0 | N |
| 2 | 3 | TURIN WARRIOR 後段發力 B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 10 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS 後段發力 H K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | KILLER INSTINCT 後段發力 B/TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 5 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | KOWLOON GREAT 後段發力 CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 11 | 8.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 5.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE 後段發力 CP-/V1 L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 12 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | CORDYCEPS ONE H-/B S De Sousa · K W Lui | S De Sousa | K W Lui | 9 | 7.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | WINNING STEPS H/PC H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 8 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | TOYCOON B-/CP2 M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 7 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | ON EXCEL STAR 早段領放 B/XB H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 2 | 13.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SO YOU TRUST B1/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 6 | 20.0 | 25 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | KOWLOON GREAT | 17.5% | 5.72 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | TURIN WARRIOR | 15.8% | 6.33 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 12.8% | 7.83 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 9.9% | 10.09 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | KILLER INSTINCT | 9.6% | 10.41 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | WINNING STEPS | 8.6% | 11.60 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | TOYCOON | 6.1% | 16.38 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS | 5.5% | 18.32 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE | 4.2% | 23.63 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | ON EXCEL STAR | 3.9% | 25.83 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE | 3.7% | 26.94 | 1 |
| 12 | 8 | SO YOU TRUST | 2.4% | 41.06 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 249.5
PLACE
3 18.5
4 62
12 51
QUINELLA
3,4 827
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 258
3,12 155.5
4,12 474.5
FORECAST
4,3 2,162
TIERCE
4,3,12 25,506
TRIO
3,4,12 3,511
FIRST 4
2,3,4,12 3,525
QUARTET
4,3,12,2 146,503
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 25
A2 —
A1 —