Happy Valley · 2022-12-07 · 18:31
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB/B2 1.39.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 3 | 24.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 10 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 0 | UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 5 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 11 | 8.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 5.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP-/V1 L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 12 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | CORDYCEPS ONE H-/B S De Sousa · K W Lui | S De Sousa | K W Lui | 9 | 7.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | WINNING STEPS H/PC H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 8 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | TOYCOON B-/CP2 M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 7 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | ON EXCEL STAR Led early B/XB H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 2 | 13.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SO YOU TRUST B1/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 6 | 20.0 | 25 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FEARLESS FIRE, ridden by L Currie and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with TURIN WARRIOR second and UNITED ENDEAVORS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite KILLER INSTINCT finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KOWLOON GREAT | 17.5% | 5.72 | 5 |
| 2 | 0 | TURIN WARRIOR | 15.8% | 6.33 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 12.8% | 7.83 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 9.9% | 10.09 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | KILLER INSTINCT | 9.6% | 10.41 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | WINNING STEPS | 8.6% | 11.60 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | TOYCOON | 6.1% | 16.38 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | UNITED ENDEAVORS | 5.5% | 18.32 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE | 4.2% | 23.63 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | ON EXCEL STAR | 3.9% | 25.83 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE | 3.7% | 26.94 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | SO YOU TRUST | 2.4% | 41.06 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 249.5
PLACE
3 18.5
4 62
12 51
QUINELLA
3,4 827
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 258
3,12 155.5
4,12 474.5
FORECAST
4,3 2,162
TIERCE
4,3,12 25,506
TRIO
3,4,12 3,511
FIRST 4
2,3,4,12 3,525
QUARTET
4,3,12,2 146,503
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 25
A1 —
A2 —