Happy Valley · 2022-12-07 · 22:58
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-07 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SPIRITED EXPRESS, ridden by H Doyle and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with SAVAQUIN second and BERLIN TANGO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite RISE BRETHREN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B 1.48.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · P F Yiu | H Doyle | P F Yiu | 11 | 10.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 4.6 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 10 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 2 | 2.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 4 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SO WE JOY H/XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | FA FA TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 6 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | FLYING QUEST B J Melham · D J Hall | J Melham | D J Hall | 3 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SUPERBELLA B/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 47.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | THE ROCK B- M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 9 | 33.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | PACKING AWARD H M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 12 | 5.7 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RISE BRETHREN | 21.8% | 4.59 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | SAVAQUIN | 16.2% | 6.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | FA FA | 13.6% | 7.36 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | PACKING AWARD | 9.7% | 10.35 | 12 |
| 5 | 12 | SPIRITED EXPRESS | 7.2% | 13.86 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | SO WE JOY | 6.0% | 16.78 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 5.8% | 17.19 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | BERLIN TANGO | 5.5% | 18.25 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | FLYING QUEST | 4.0% | 25.06 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | THE ROCK | 3.5% | 28.44 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 3.4% | 29.35 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPERBELLA | 3.4% | 29.44 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 100
PLACE
3 46.5
7 18
12 28.5
QUINELLA
7,12 238
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 142.5
3,12 247.5
7,12 80
FORECAST
12,7 715
TIERCE
12,7,3 8,005
TRIO
3,7,12 1,812
FIRST 4
3,6,7,12 685
QUARTET
12,7,3,6 25,373
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 29
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,12/3,7,12 473,313
8TH DOUBLE
3/7 20
3/12 555
SIX UP
10,11/1,3/4,7/2,7/3,5/7,12 10,542
11/1/4/7/3/12 615,419
3 [K W Lui] —
TREBLE
7/3/7 200
7/3/12 4,628