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Happy Valley · 2022-12-07 · 21:11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLD GOLD BABY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with ALLGREEKTOME second and BEAUTY MISSION third. The 2.9 favourite SIXTH GENERATION finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GOLD GOLD BABY TT 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 4.4 1-1/2
2 7 ALLGREEKTOME TT J McDonald · D A Hayes 11 15.0 1-1/2
3 3 BEAUTY MISSION CP/SR2 H Bowman · F C Lor 4 11.0 2-1/4
4 10 ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 6 9.7 2-1/2
5 12 SIXTH GENERATION H1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 12 2.9 3
6 2 MEGA BONUS V T Marquand · P F Yiu 3 10.0 3-1/2
7 5 INFINITE POWER CP H Doyle · P C Ng 2 20.0 3-1/2
8 6 FAST PACE H/TT J Melham · C Fownes 1 34.0 3-1/2
9 8 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE R Moore · J Size 8 6.7 4-1/4
10 11 SUNNY AND GOLD TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 43.0 4-1/2
11 1 SUPER DOBBIN B K Teetan · A T Millard 7 42.0 5-3/4
12 9 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 64.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD GOLD BABY2. ALLGREEKTOME+1.5L3. BEAUTY MISSION+2.25L4. ISLAND SURPRISE+2.5L5. SIXTH GENERATION+3L6. MEGA BONUS+3.5L7. INFINITE POWER+3.5L8. FAST PACE+3.5L9. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+4.25L10. SUNNY AND GOLD+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SIXTH GENERATION (15.2%) finished 5th — the winner GOLD GOLD BABY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 SIXTH GENERATION 15.2% 6.57 5
2 8 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 14.1% 7.09 9
3 2 MEGA BONUS 14.0% 7.15 6
4 4 GOLD GOLD BABY 12.7% 7.85 1
5 10 ISLAND SURPRISE 11.1% 9.00 4
6 7 ALLGREEKTOME 7.1% 14.06 2
7 3 BEAUTY MISSION 6.5% 15.42 3
8 5 INFINITE POWER 6.2% 16.01 7
9 11 SUNNY AND GOLD 4.4% 22.70 10
10 6 FAST PACE 3.5% 28.29 8
11 9 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA 2.6% 38.85 12
12 1 SUPER DOBBIN 2.5% 40.25 11
SIXTH GENERATIONHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEMEGA BONUSGOLD GOLD BABY — wonISLAND SURPRISEALLGREEKTOMEBEAUTY MISSIONINFINITE POWERSUNNY AND GOLDFAST PACEGEM OF SOUTH CHINASUPER DOBBIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 44.5

PLACE

3 28.5

4 18

7 49.5

QUINELLA

4,7 453

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 70.5

3,7 217

4,7 163

FORECAST

4,7 712

TIERCE

4,7,3 5,320

TRIO

3,4,7 1,463

FIRST 4

3,4,7,10 2,419

QUARTET

4,7,3,10 40,086

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17.5

5TH DOUBLE

1/4 208

1/7 112.5