Happy Valley · 2022-12-07 · 19:31
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-07 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HEARTY WISH, ridden by J Melham and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with ZACIAN second and LE PLUS VITE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HEARTY WISH SR/TT 1.10.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Melham · D J Whyte | J Melham | D J Whyte | 3 | 2.1 | N |
| 2 | 12 | ZACIAN S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 11 | 13.0 | N |
| 3 | 6 | LE PLUS VITE XB/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 5 | 15.0 | N |
| 4 | 3 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP-/XB/B1 Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 7 | 35.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | HANDSOME GUYS E/TT R Moore · C Fownes | R Moore | C Fownes | 12 | 8.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | CIGAR BUDDIES B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | U W BROTHER H Doyle · Y S Tsui | H Doyle | Y S Tsui | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | TOUCH FAITH J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 8 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | JACK WIN B/H/TT T Marquand · A S Cruz | T Marquand | A S Cruz | 1 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | LITTLE PLAYER B-/XB/V1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 2 | 9.1 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER KINGDOM B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 6 | 41.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H/XB C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 82.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HEARTY WISH | 16.0% | 6.24 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | LITTLE PLAYER | 16.0% | 6.25 | 10 |
| 3 | 10 | HANDSOME GUYS | 13.4% | 7.44 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | U W BROTHER | 10.9% | 9.21 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | LE PLUS VITE | 9.4% | 10.69 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | JACK WIN | 8.8% | 11.39 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | ZACIAN | 8.1% | 12.39 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | TOUCH FAITH | 5.9% | 16.87 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | CIGAR BUDDIES | 4.2% | 23.94 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY | 3.7% | 27.27 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 2.0% | 49.64 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | SUPER KINGDOM | 1.7% | 59.79 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 21.5
PLACE
4 11.5
6 42.5
12 35.5
QUINELLA
4,12 164
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 77.5
4,12 63
6,12 197.5
FORECAST
4,12 316
TIERCE
4,12,6 3,234
TRIO
4,6,12 636
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 6,044
QUARTET
4,12,6,3 73,251
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
7/4 83.5
7/12 84
3 PICK 1
A1 17.5
A3 —
A2 —