沙田 · 2023-01-08 · 15:36
第 7場
2023-01-08沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bowman策騎、F C Lor訓練的SWORD POINT勝出，贏出2-3/4。NIMBLE NIMBUS獲得亞軍；CHAMPION DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.4倍大熱門CHAMPION DRAGON跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SWORD POINT 後段發力 CP 1.47.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 6 | 7.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | NIMBLE NIMBUS V/TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 9 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CHAMPION DRAGON 後段發力 H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 3.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | HIT THE SHOT 後段發力 TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 14 | 6.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON 後段發力 B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | COPARTNER ELITES 後段發力 CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 13 | 4.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | SNAFFLES 後段發力 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER 後段發力 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 41.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | INTREPID WINNER B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 28.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 14 | DEAR SIBLING 後段發力 B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 167.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | RUNNING AHEAD TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | TOURBILLON PRINCE 早段領放 TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 23.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 13 | SAMARKAND H/TT1 H N Wong · P C Ng | H N Wong | P C Ng | 3 | 52.0 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HIT THE SHOT | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 16.1% | 6.22 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | CHAMPION DRAGON | 14.2% | 7.04 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | COPARTNER ELITES | 9.0% | 11.13 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | INTREPID WINNER | 7.4% | 13.46 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | SWORD POINT | 6.8% | 14.80 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | FLYING QUEST | 5.2% | 19.18 | 10 |
| 8 | 13 | SAMARKAND | 4.3% | 23.21 | 14 |
| 9 | 12 | RUNNING AHEAD | 4.1% | 24.46 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON | 4.1% | 24.53 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | SNAFFLES | 3.5% | 28.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER | 2.8% | 35.88 | 8 |
| 13 | 9 | TOURBILLON PRINCE | 1.7% | 59.54 | 13 |
| 14 | 14 | DEAR SIBLING | 1.3% | 74.18 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 75.5
PLACE
1 16
5 28.5
8 36.5
QUINELLA
5,8 423.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 65
1,8 85.5
5,8 146.5
FORECAST
5,8 1,018
TIERCE
5,8,1 3,511
TRIO
1,5,8 465
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 771
QUARTET
5,8,1,11 22,656
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 26
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,12/1,5,8 176,061
6TH DOUBLE
5/5 1,498
5/8 583
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,10/5,8,12/1,5,8 29,100,783
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,10/5,8,12/Any Combination 61,313