沙田 · 2023-04-30 · 12:46
第 1場
2023-04-30沙田第1場，Class 4，途程2000米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的PACKING HURRICANE勝出，贏出N。REACH GOAL獲得亞軍；GO GO SIXTEEN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門REACH GOAL跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PACKING HURRICANE 後段發力 TT 2.03.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 9.0 | N |
| 2 | 9 | REACH GOAL 後段發力 TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.3 | N |
| 3 | 10 | GO GO SIXTEEN 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 2 | 7.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 13 | VINCY 後段發力 SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SUNNY BABY 後段發力 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 13 | 43.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 6 | 76.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | TURQUOISE ALPHA 後段發力 CP/XB T Marquand · P C Ng | T Marquand | P C Ng | 10 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | HAPPY WON C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 5 | 9.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | WONDER YEARS 後段發力 B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 3 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 4 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | YEABOI 早段領放 B/TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 7 | 42.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | BORN THE SAME DAY H/XB C Demuro · C W Chang | C Demuro | C W Chang | 8 | 32.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 1 | KOWLOON GREAT CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 14 | 7.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 3 | ENSURED B-/V1 H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 9 | 7.5 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | REACH GOAL | 26.9% | 3.72 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | ENSURED | 11.7% | 8.53 | 14 |
| 3 | 1 | KOWLOON GREAT | 9.6% | 10.46 | 13 |
| 4 | 14 | HAPPY WON | 8.0% | 12.54 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 6.9% | 14.56 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | WONDER YEARS | 6.3% | 15.80 | 9 |
| 7 | 10 | GO GO SIXTEEN | 6.0% | 16.60 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPER HONG KONG | 5.9% | 16.93 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | VINCY | 4.9% | 20.59 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNNY BABY | 4.7% | 21.31 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | PACKING HURRICANE | 3.2% | 31.74 | 1 |
| 12 | 11 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 2.5% | 39.92 | 12 |
| 13 | 6 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 1.9% | 52.15 | 6 |
| 14 | 4 | YEABOI | 1.6% | 62.59 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 90.5
PLACE
2 31
9 17.5
10 27
QUINELLA
2,9 256.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 100
2,10 189
9,10 80
FORECAST
2,9 480
TIERCE
2,9,10 4,194
TRIO
2,9,10 892
FIRST 4
2,9,10,13 2,662
QUARTET
2,9,10,13 49,160
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 21.5