Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 12:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. PACKING HURRICANE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with REACH GOAL second and GO GO SIXTEEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite REACH GOAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.03.79

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly TT 2.03.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	11	135 lb	9.0	N
2	9	REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	1	126 lb	4.3	N
3	10	GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	2	125 lb	7.4	2
4	13	VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip	A Hamelin	C H Yip	12	120 lb	17.0	2-3/4
5	12	SUNNY BABY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	13	120 lb	43.0	3-1/4
6	6	LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting	L Currie	K H Ting	6	128 lb	76.0	3-1/2
7	8	TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB T Marquand · P C Ng	T Marquand	P C Ng	10	127 lb	20.0	4-1/2
8	14	HAPPY WON C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	5	119 lb	9.2	4-3/4
9	5	WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	3	129 lb	13.0	4-3/4
10	7	SUPER HONG KONG B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard	M Chadwick	A T Millard	4	127 lb	12.0	5-1/2
11	4	YEABOI Led early B/TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	7	130 lb	42.0	8-1/4
12	11	BORN THE SAME DAY H/XB C Demuro · C W Chang	C Demuro	C W Chang	8	124 lb	32.0	8-3/4
13	1	KOWLOON GREAT CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	14	135 lb	7.0	9
14	3	ENSURED B-/V1 H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	9	133 lb	7.5	12

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick REACH GOAL (26.9%) finished 2nd — the winner PACKING HURRICANE was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	REACH GOAL	26.9%	3.72	2	4.3
2	3	ENSURED	11.7%	8.53	14	7.5
3	1	KOWLOON GREAT	9.6%	10.46	13	7.0
4	14	HAPPY WON	8.0%	12.54	8	9.2
5	8	TURQUOISE ALPHA	6.9%	14.56	7	20.0
6	5	WONDER YEARS	6.3%	15.80	9	13.0
7	10	GO GO SIXTEEN	6.0%	16.60	3	7.4
8	7	SUPER HONG KONG	5.9%	16.93	10	12.0
9	13	VINCY	4.9%	20.59	4	17.0
10	12	SUNNY BABY	4.7%	21.31	5	43.0
11	2	PACKING HURRICANE	3.2%	31.74	1	9.0
12	11	BORN THE SAME DAY	2.5%	39.92	12	32.0
13	6	LUCKY DIAMOND	1.9%	52.15	6	76.0
14	4	YEABOI	1.6%	62.59	11	42.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 90.5

PLACE

2 31

9 17.5

10 27

QUINELLA

2,9 256.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 100

2,10 189

9,10 80

FORECAST

2,9 480

TIERCE

2,9,10 4,194

TRIO

2,9,10 892

FIRST 4

2,9,10,13 2,662

QUARTET

2,9,10,13 49,160

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 21.5

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99