Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 16:48
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with PROGNOSIS second and DUBAI HONOUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.01.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 4 | 1.6 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | PROGNOSIS Closed strongly H Z Purton · M Nakauchida | Z Purton | M Nakauchida | 3 | 7.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | DUBAI HONOUR Closed strongly XB/TT T Marquand · W J Haggas | T Marquand | W J Haggas | 1 | 4.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | MONEY CATCHER Led early S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 5 | 31.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | DANON THE KID H C Y Ho · T Yasuda | C Y Ho | T Yasuda | 7 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | GERALDINA Closed strongly C Demuro · T Saito | C Demuro | T Saito | 2 | 8.2 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND B-/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 73.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | DANON THE KID | 16.3% | 6.12 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | DUBAI HONOUR | 15.7% | 6.38 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | PROGNOSIS | 15.2% | 6.57 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | MONEY CATCHER | 6.2% | 16.05 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | GERALDINA | 6.1% | 16.46 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 4.5% | 22.18 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 16.5
PLACE
1 11
2 15
6 17
QUINELLA
1,6 46.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 15
1,6 21
2,6 39.5
FORECAST
1,6 84
TIERCE
1,6,2 177
TRIO
1,2,6 40
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 129
QUARTET
1,6,2,5 1,265
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16.5
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/1,2,6 456
7TH DOUBLE
1/1 20
1/6 24.5