Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 16:48

Race 8

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course A 7 runners

Result

Official · 2.01.92

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.01.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum	J McDonald	C S Shum	4	126 lb	1.6	2
2	PROGNOSIS Closed strongly H Z Purton · M Nakauchida	Z Purton	M Nakauchida	3	126 lb	7.6	2
3	DUBAI HONOUR Closed strongly XB/TT T Marquand · W J Haggas	T Marquand	W J Haggas	1	126 lb	4.7	2-1/2
4	MONEY CATCHER Led early S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	5	126 lb	31.0	3
5	DANON THE KID H C Y Ho · T Yasuda	C Y Ho	T Yasuda	7	126 lb	11.0	5
6	GERALDINA Closed strongly C Demuro · T Saito	C Demuro	T Saito	2	122 lb	8.2	5
7	TOURBILLON DIAMOND B-/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	6	126 lb	73.0	6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with PROGNOSIS second and DUBAI HONOUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ROMANTIC WARRIOR (36.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	ROMANTIC WARRIOR	36.0%	2.78	1	1.6
2	DANON THE KID	16.3%	6.12	5	11.0
3	DUBAI HONOUR	15.7%	6.38	3	4.7
4	PROGNOSIS	15.2%	6.57	2	7.6
5	MONEY CATCHER	6.2%	16.05	4	31.0
6	GERALDINA	6.1%	16.46	6	8.2
7	TOURBILLON DIAMOND	4.5%	22.18	7	73.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16.5

PLACE

1 11

2 15

6 17

QUINELLA

1,6 46.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 15

1,6 21

2,6 39.5

FORECAST

1,6 84

TIERCE

1,6,2 177

TRIO

1,2,6 40

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 129

QUARTET

1,6,2,5 1,265

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 16.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/1,2,6 456

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 20

1/6 24.5

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