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Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REWARD SMILE, ridden by L Currie and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with PRINCE OF PORTY second and SUPREME LUCKY third. The 1.7 favourite PRINCE OF PORTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 REWARD SMILE 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · J Size 9 28.0 3/4
2 7 PRINCE OF PORTY Z Purton · D J Hall 7 1.7 3/4
3 1 SUPREME LUCKY H1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 13 3.0 2
4 11 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS C L Chau · T P Yung 12 156.0 2-3/4
5 6 SUPERB BOY TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 33.0 3
6 3 SHINING GEM B R Maia · P F Yiu 5 34.0 3-3/4
7 5 CAPITAL DELIGHT B1/TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes 11 19.0 4
8 2 SHOW RESPECT SR/XB/TT T Marquand · D J Whyte 2 34.0 4
9 9 NORTHERN BEACHES K Teetan · W Y So 8 48.0 5-1/4
10 10 BIG RED M Chadwick · C W Chang 10 127.0 5-1/2
11 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB S De Sousa · F C Lor 3 36.0 6-1/2
12 14 FORTUNE WARRIOR CP1/XB1 A Badel · P C Ng 14 245.0 6-1/2
13 4 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 18.0 9
14 8 NISHIKADO V Borges · Y S Tsui 6 166.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REWARD SMILE2. PRINCE OF PORTY+0.75L3. SUPREME LUCKY+2L4. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+2.75L5. SUPERB BOY+3L6. SHINING GEM+3.75L7. CAPITAL DELIGHT+4L8. SHOW RESPECT+4L9. NORTHERN BEACHES+5.25L10. BIG RED+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PRINCE OF PORTY (38.3%) finished 2nd — the winner REWARD SMILE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 PRINCE OF PORTY 38.3% 2.61 2
2 1 SUPREME LUCKY 24.4% 4.09 3
3 5 CAPITAL DELIGHT 7.6% 13.18 7
4 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 5.4% 18.37 11
5 4 SUPER FORTUNE 5.0% 19.89 13
6 9 NORTHERN BEACHES 3.8% 26.12 9
7 6 SUPERB BOY 3.7% 27.33 5
8 2 SHOW RESPECT 2.4% 40.86 8
9 3 SHINING GEM 2.2% 45.77 6
10 11 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 1.9% 51.31 4
11 10 BIG RED 1.9% 53.46 10
12 13 REWARD SMILE 1.5% 68.91 1
13 8 NISHIKADO 1.2% 84.43 14
14 14 FORTUNE WARRIOR 0.6% 155.62 12
PRINCE OF PORTYSUPREME LUCKYCAPITAL DELIGHTLUCKY ARCHANGELSUPER FORTUNENORTHERN BEACHESSUPERB BOYSHOW RESPECTSHINING GEMEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSBIG REDREWARD SMILE — wonNISHIKADOFORTUNE WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 286

PLACE

1 12

7 11.5

13 47

QUINELLA

7,13 229

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 14

1,13 100.5

7,13 70.5

FORECAST

13,7 845

TIERCE

13,7,1 2,373

TRIO

1,7,13 140

FIRST 4

1,7,11,13 1,329

QUARTET

13,7,1,11 47,746

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/7 24

3/13 1,591.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 83.5