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Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 17:28

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 NOT USUAL STAR Wire to wire H/TT 1.23.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 7 17.0 N
3 0 GOOD BUDDY Closed strongly J McDonald · D J Hall 2 5.2 3/4
4 0 SILVER SONIC Closed strongly XB1/TT- H Bentley · K W Lui 5 187.0 1
5 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT J Moreira · D A Hayes 1 4.5 1-3/4
6 0 UNPRESUMING Closed strongly B K Teetan · J Size 11 7.8 3-1/4
7 0 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng 14 5.0 3-1/2
8 0 HAPPY MISSION H/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 9.4 4
9 0 CHARITY GRACE B-/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 6 103.0 4-3/4
10 0 PRECISE EXPRESS H S De Sousa · P F Yiu 4 78.0 4-3/4
11 0 HK DRAGON V/TT T Marquand · D J Whyte 10 27.0 5
12 0 CAPITAL LEGEND TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 8.0 5-1/2
13 0 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 13 71.0 6
14 0 SEASONS BLISS L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 54.0 8-1/4
— 0 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly B K C Leung · F C Lor — 11.0 N

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOT USUAL STAR, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by N, with GOOD BUDDY second and SILVER SONIC third. The winner led throughout. The 4.5 favourite WIDE BLUE YONDER finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOT USUAL STAR—3. GOOD BUDDY+0.75L4. SILVER SONIC+1L5. WIDE BLUE YONDER+1.75L6. UNPRESUMING+3.25L7. TAJ DRAGON+3.5L8. HAPPY MISSION+4L9. CHARITY GRACE+4.75L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.75L11. HK DRAGON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WIDE BLUE YONDER (19.6%) finished 5th — the winner NOT USUAL STAR was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER 19.6% 5.10 5
2 0 HAPPY MISSION 17.6% 5.67 8
3 0 TAJ DRAGON 10.5% 9.52 7
4 0 CAPITAL LEGEND 10.4% 9.58 12
5 0 UNPRESUMING 8.0% 12.48 6
6 0 GOOD BUDDY 7.6% 13.09 3
7 0 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.5% 15.39 —
8 0 HK DRAGON 4.0% 25.09 11
9 0 CHARITY GRACE 3.8% 26.26 9
10 0 PRECISE EXPRESS 3.4% 29.29 10
11 0 NOT USUAL STAR 3.1% 32.00 1
12 0 SEASONS BLISS 2.9% 33.91 14
13 0 CIRCUIT NINE 1.8% 55.46 13
14 0 SILVER SONIC 0.6% 172.13 4
WIDE BLUE YONDERHAPPY MISSIONTAJ DRAGONCAPITAL LEGENDUNPRESUMINGGOOD BUDDYBEAUTY MISSILEHK DRAGONCHARITY GRACEPRECISE EXPRESSNOT USUAL STAR — wonSEASONS BLISSCIRCUIT NINESILVER SONIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 178.5

PLACE

3 18

4 44

5 38.5

QUINELLA

4,5 807

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 128

3,5 135

4,5 235.5

FORECAST

4,5 1,302

TIERCE

4,5,3 7,135

TRIO

3,4,5 1,345

FIRST 4

3,4,5,11 31,233

QUARTET

4,5,3,11 585,865

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 27

A2 —

A1 —

8TH DOUBLE

1/4 226.5

1/5 36