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Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 17:28

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOT USUAL STAR, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by N, with BEAUTY MISSILE second and GOOD BUDDY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.5 favourite WIDE BLUE YONDER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.23.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 NOT USUAL STAR Wire to wire H/TT 1.23.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 7 17.0 N
2 5 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly B K C Leung · F C Lor 8 11.0 N
3 3 GOOD BUDDY Closed strongly J McDonald · D J Hall 2 5.2 3/4
4 11 SILVER SONIC Closed strongly XB1/TT- H Bentley · K W Lui 5 187.0 1
5 14 WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT J Moreira · D A Hayes 1 4.5 1-3/4
6 12 UNPRESUMING Closed strongly B K Teetan · J Size 11 7.8 3-1/4
7 7 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng 14 5.0 3-1/2
8 8 HAPPY MISSION H/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 9.4 4
9 1 CHARITY GRACE B-/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 6 103.0 4-3/4
10 6 PRECISE EXPRESS H S De Sousa · P F Yiu 4 78.0 4-3/4
11 9 HK DRAGON V/TT T Marquand · D J Whyte 10 27.0 5
12 2 CAPITAL LEGEND TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 8.0 5-1/2
13 13 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 13 71.0 6
14 10 SEASONS BLISS L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 54.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOT USUAL STAR2. BEAUTY MISSILE+0.05L3. GOOD BUDDY+0.75L4. SILVER SONIC+1L5. WIDE BLUE YONDER+1.75L6. UNPRESUMING+3.25L7. TAJ DRAGON+3.5L8. HAPPY MISSION+4L9. CHARITY GRACE+4.75L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WIDE BLUE YONDER (19.6%) finished 5th — the winner NOT USUAL STAR was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 WIDE BLUE YONDER 19.6% 5.10 5
2 8 HAPPY MISSION 17.6% 5.67 8
3 7 TAJ DRAGON 10.5% 9.52 7
4 2 CAPITAL LEGEND 10.4% 9.58 12
5 12 UNPRESUMING 8.0% 12.48 6
6 3 GOOD BUDDY 7.6% 13.09 3
7 5 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.5% 15.39 2
8 9 HK DRAGON 4.0% 25.09 11
9 1 CHARITY GRACE 3.8% 26.26 9
10 6 PRECISE EXPRESS 3.4% 29.29 10
11 4 NOT USUAL STAR 3.1% 32.00 1
12 10 SEASONS BLISS 2.9% 33.91 14
13 13 CIRCUIT NINE 1.8% 55.46 13
14 11 SILVER SONIC 0.6% 172.13 4
WIDE BLUE YONDERHAPPY MISSIONTAJ DRAGONCAPITAL LEGENDUNPRESUMINGGOOD BUDDYBEAUTY MISSILEHK DRAGONCHARITY GRACEPRECISE EXPRESSNOT USUAL STAR — wonSEASONS BLISSCIRCUIT NINESILVER SONIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 178.5

PLACE

3 18

4 44

5 38.5

QUINELLA

4,5 807

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 128

3,5 135

4,5 235.5

FORECAST

4,5 1,302

TIERCE

4,5,3 7,135

TRIO

3,4,5 1,345

FIRST 4

3,4,5,11 31,233

QUARTET

4,5,3,11 585,865

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 27

A1

A2

8TH DOUBLE

1/4 226.5

1/5 36