Sha Tin · 2023-04-30 · 14:53
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-30 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 3-1/4, with COURIER WONDER second and WELLINGTON third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 6 | 1.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | COURIER WONDER H H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 34.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | WELLINGTON CP/XB A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 2 | 7.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | SIGHT SUCCESS E J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 1 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | AGURI C Demuro · T Yasuda | C Demuro | T Yasuda | 8 | 22.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | DUKE WAI V C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 5 | 46.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | FLAMING RIB XB T Marquand · H Palmer | T Marquand | H Palmer | 3 | 56.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | MASTER EIGHT TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 18.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 13.8% | 7.24 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | WELLINGTON | 10.2% | 9.78 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | DUKE WAI | 5.8% | 17.10 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | AGURI | 5.1% | 19.52 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | FLAMING RIB | 4.4% | 22.88 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | COURIER WONDER | 4.1% | 24.18 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | MASTER EIGHT | 3.4% | 29.79 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 12
PLACE
1 10.1
2 12
4 33
QUINELLA
1,4 92
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 13.5
1,4 33.5
2,4 60
FORECAST
1,4 126
TIERCE
1,4,2 230
TRIO
1,2,4 70
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 54
QUARTET
1,4,2,3 689
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
13/6,14/1 1,268
13/6,14/4 4,254
3 PICK 1
A1 12
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
6,14/1 28
6,14/4 173.5