沙田 · 2023-06-04 · 17:37
第 4場
2023-06-04沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由L Hewitson策騎、K W Lui訓練的SWEET BRIAR勝出，贏出N。HONG KONG HALL獲得亞軍；JUNE PLANET獲得季軍。2.5倍大熱門BABY CRYSTAL跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SWEET BRIAR B/TT 1.09.04 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 20.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | HONG KONG HALL TT H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 7.2 | N |
| 3 | 10 | JUNE PLANET B/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 13 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | GREENWICH M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 7 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | BABY CRYSTAL Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 2.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | GREEN N WHITE TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 14 | 6.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | TEXAS MOON B K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 9 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | HIGH CLOUD B-/XB/SR2 M Dee · D J Whyte | M Dee | D J Whyte | 6 | 27.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | DEVIL AND GOLD TT2 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 103.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | DASHING TRIUMPH CP/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 11 | 62.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 3 | COURIER MAGIC CP/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 12 | 179.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | CURLING SPEED B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 8 | 141.0 | 13-1/2 |
| — | 0 | MAGIC TRAVELLER · W Y So | — | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BABY CRYSTAL | 36.4% | 2.75 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | HONG KONG HALL | 17.9% | 5.58 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | GREEN N WHITE | 8.0% | 12.54 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | JUNE PLANET | 7.3% | 13.75 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | REGENCY BO BO | 5.6% | 17.87 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | DUBLIN STAR | 4.6% | 21.51 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | SWEET BRIAR | 4.6% | 21.73 | 1 |
| 8 | 13 | HIGH CLOUD | 3.8% | 26.60 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | GREENWICH | 3.7% | 27.28 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | TEXAS MOON | 2.2% | 45.03 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | DASHING TRIUMPH | 2.2% | 45.96 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | COURIER MAGIC | 1.6% | 63.13 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | DEVIL AND GOLD | 1.3% | 75.76 | 11 |
| 14 | 8 | CURLING SPEED | 0.9% | 111.92 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 206
PLACE
6 23
9 49.5
10 44
QUINELLA
6,9 615.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 177
6,10 171.5
9,10 330.5
FORECAST
9,6 1,590
TIERCE
9,6,10 18,615
TRIO
6,9,10 2,691
FIRST 4
5,6,9,10 3,564
QUARTET
9,6,10,5 109,053
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/6,9,10 20,095
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 38
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/6 24.5
3/9 337.5