沙田 · 2023-07-09 · 17:03
第 3場
2023-07-09沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由L Ferraris策騎、D J Hall訓練的LUCKY MISSILE勝出，贏出3/4。SPLENDID STAR獲得亞軍；SUPERB DADDY獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.5倍大熱門BRILLIANT PIONEER跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE 一路領先 CP-/B2 1.35.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 2 | 5.6 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 13 | SPLENDID STAR 後段發力 M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 12 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPERB DADDY 後段發力 TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 3 | 5.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SURREALISM 後段發力 B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 1 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | BRILLIANT PIONEER 後段發力 H/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 3.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | SMILING FACE 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 7 | 58.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | FOXHUNTER WAY 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 46.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | GENERAL WINNER 後段發力 CP K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 6.9 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 4 | 18.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | STAR OF GLORY B C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 8 | 9.4 | 15 |
| 11 | 9 | SMART BEAUTY 後段發力 B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 14 | 25.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | BOYS PARTY SR H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 13 | 75.0 | 17 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPER JOY P/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 53.0 | 22 |
| 14 | 1 | CHARIZARD B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 11 | 37.0 | 25-1/2 |
| — | 0 | GREAT BRILLIANT H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 19.2% | 5.20 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | GENERAL WINNER | 13.3% | 7.50 | 8 |
| 3 | 13 | SPLENDID STAR | 8.9% | 11.24 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SUPERB DADDY | 8.7% | 11.54 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | CHARIZARD | 7.0% | 14.34 | 14 |
| 6 | 12 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 6.7% | 14.91 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | SMART BEAUTY | 6.6% | 15.13 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE | 6.2% | 16.13 | 1 |
| 9 | 6 | STAR OF GLORY | 5.4% | 18.39 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | BOYS PARTY | 4.2% | 23.87 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER JOY | 3.6% | 27.80 | 13 |
| 12 | 14 | SMILING FACE | 3.4% | 28.99 | 6 |
| 13 | 3 | SURREALISM | 3.4% | 29.13 | 4 |
| 14 | 11 | TSUEN WAN GLORY | 3.3% | 30.39 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 56.5
PLACE
4 21
10 20.5
13 51
QUINELLA
10,13 724.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 61
4,13 164.5
10,13 205.5
FORECAST
10,13 1,257
TIERCE
10,13,4 6,803
TRIO
4,10,13 1,019
FIRST 4
3,4,10,13 3,673
QUARTET
10,13,4,3 96,241
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,6/4,10,13 18,367
2ND DOUBLE
6/10 468.5
6/13 74.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 24
A1 —