沙田 · 2024-01-01 · 06:35
第 4場
2024-01-01沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C H Yip訓練的FIRE BALL勝出，贏出SH。STARSHIP EIGHTY獲得亞軍；BEAT HOLLOW獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.0倍大熱門STARSHIP EIGHTY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FIRE BALL 後段發力 CP 1.23.44 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 14 | 6.1 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | STARSHIP EIGHTY 後段發力 PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 6 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | BEAT HOLLOW 早段領放 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 13 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | BROTHER PEARL 後段發力 L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 4 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | CHARMANDER 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 10 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | APEX TOP B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 13 | FOXHUNTER WAY L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 1 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | SPANGLE FORTUNE CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | CASA LEGEND 後段發力 B/XB1/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 2 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.1 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 11 | 6.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | CHARMING STEED H-/P-/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | HAPPIHOOD B/TT1 M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 9 | 132.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | JUST GREAT TWO CP1 K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 12 | 90.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 16.7% | 5.99 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | CASA LEGEND | 11.4% | 8.76 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | APEX TOP | 10.6% | 9.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | FIRE BALL | 10.2% | 9.79 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH | 9.3% | 10.79 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | NORDIC COMBINED | 8.5% | 11.73 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | CHARMING STEED | 7.8% | 12.74 | 12 |
| 8 | 8 | CHARMANDER | 5.6% | 18.01 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | BEAT HOLLOW | 5.2% | 19.08 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | BROTHER PEARL | 5.0% | 19.83 | 4 |
| 11 | 13 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 3.8% | 26.42 | 7 |
| 12 | 2 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 3.1% | 32.02 | 8 |
| 13 | 14 | JUST GREAT TWO | 1.6% | 64.34 | 14 |
| 14 | 7 | HAPPIHOOD | 1.2% | 84.15 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 61.5
PLACE
4 20
10 90
11 23.5
QUINELLA
4,11 148
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 239
4,11 53
10,11 312
FORECAST
11,4 313
TIERCE
11,4,10 7,002
TRIO
4,10,11 1,781
FIRST 4
4,10,11,12 7,601
QUARTET
11,4,10,12 125,458
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,6/4,10,11 60,890
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 38.5
1/11 402.5