Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 14:31
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FIRE BALL Closed strongly CP 1.23.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 14 | 6.1 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 6 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | BEAT HOLLOW Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 13 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 4 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | CHARMANDER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 10 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | APEX TOP B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | FOXHUNTER WAY L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 1 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SPANGLE FORTUNE CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/XB1/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 2 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.1 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 11 | 6.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | CHARMING STEED H-/P-/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | HAPPIHOOD B/TT1 M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 9 | 132.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | JUST GREAT TWO CP1 K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 12 | 90.0 | 11 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FIRE BALL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with STARSHIP EIGHTY second and BEAT HOLLOW third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite STARSHIP EIGHTY finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 16.7% | 5.99 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | CASA LEGEND | 11.4% | 8.76 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | APEX TOP | 10.6% | 9.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | FIRE BALL | 10.2% | 9.79 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | PERFECT PEACH | 9.3% | 10.79 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | NORDIC COMBINED | 8.5% | 11.73 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | CHARMING STEED | 7.8% | 12.74 | 12 |
| 8 | 0 | CHARMANDER | 5.6% | 18.01 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | BEAT HOLLOW | 5.2% | 19.08 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | BROTHER PEARL | 5.0% | 19.83 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 3.8% | 26.42 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 3.1% | 32.02 | 8 |
| 13 | 0 | JUST GREAT TWO | 1.6% | 64.34 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | HAPPIHOOD | 1.2% | 84.15 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 61.5
PLACE
4 20
10 90
11 23.5
QUINELLA
4,11 148
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 239
4,11 53
10,11 312
FORECAST
11,4 313
TIERCE
11,4,10 7,002
TRIO
4,10,11 1,781
FIRST 4
4,10,11,12 7,601
QUARTET
11,4,10,12 125,458
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,6/4,10,11 60,890
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 38.5
1/11 402.5