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Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ENDEARED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with CELTIC TIMES second and BEATO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ENDEARED Closed strongly XB 1.22.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 10 3.0 3/4
2 5 CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · W K Mo 9 7.0 3/4
3 2 BEATO Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 5 6.9 1-1/4
4 8 SMART FIGHTER Led early TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 12 11.0 3-1/4
5 7 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 7.3 4
6 1 WAR OF COURAGE B K C Leung · K L Man 1 20.0 4-1/2
7 9 KASI FARASI Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · C H Yip 6 22.0 4-3/4
8 12 MACH TEN Closed strongly CP M F Poon · P F Yiu 11 22.0 5
9 13 YOUNG HORIZON L Hewitson · D A Hayes 4 16.0 5-1/4
10 10 YEABOI B/TT K De Melo · C H Yip 2 35.0 7
11 11 MORE RICE B2 M Chadwick · T P Yung 3 15.0 8
12 4 SUPER TEN XB/B2 E C W Wong · C W Chang 13 80.0 8-3/4
6 GALVANIC PC-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 14.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENDEARED2. CELTIC TIMES+0.75L3. BEATO+1.25L4. SMART FIGHTER+3.25L5. GOLDEN BULL+4L6. WAR OF COURAGE+4.5L7. KASI FARASI+4.75L8. MACH TEN+5L9. YOUNG HORIZON+5.25L10. YEABOI+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEATO (17.5%) finished 3rd — the winner ENDEARED was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEATO 17.5% 5.72 3
2 3 ENDEARED 13.6% 7.34 1
3 5 CELTIC TIMES 11.5% 8.66 2
4 8 SMART FIGHTER 11.3% 8.88 4
5 7 GOLDEN BULL 10.0% 9.96 5
6 13 YOUNG HORIZON 7.7% 13.01 9
7 1 WAR OF COURAGE 7.1% 14.14 6
8 9 KASI FARASI 6.0% 16.73 7
9 12 MACH TEN 5.9% 17.02 8
10 11 MORE RICE 4.1% 24.53 11
11 10 YEABOI 4.0% 24.70 10
12 4 SUPER TEN 1.3% 75.74 12
BEATOENDEARED — wonCELTIC TIMESSMART FIGHTERGOLDEN BULLYOUNG HORIZONWAR OF COURAGEKASI FARASIMACH TENMORE RICEYEABOISUPER TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 30.5

PLACE

2 21.5

3 15.5

5 21.5

QUINELLA

3,5 112.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 40

2,5 96.5

3,5 48.5

FORECAST

3,5 210

TIERCE

3,5,2 809

TRIO

2,3,5 172

FIRST 4

2,3,5,8 543

QUARTET

3,5,2,8 8,977

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,12/2,3,5 5,484

5TH DOUBLE

5/3 396

5/5 174

TRIPLE TRIO

4,10,11/5,8,12/2,3,5 1,404,408

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,10,11/5,8,12/Any Combination 7,344