Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 07:40
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ENDEARED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with CELTIC TIMES second and BEATO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ENDEARED Closed strongly XB 1.22.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · W K Mo | H Bowman | W K Mo | 9 | 7.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | BEATO Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz | J McDonald | A S Cruz | 5 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SMART FIGHTER Led early TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 12 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 7.3 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | WAR OF COURAGE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | KASI FARASI Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 6 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | MACH TEN Closed strongly CP M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | YOUNG HORIZON L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 4 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | YEABOI B/TT K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 2 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | MORE RICE B2 M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 3 | 15.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | SUPER TEN XB/B2 E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 13 | 80.0 | 8-3/4 |
| — | 6 | GALVANIC PC-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 14.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEATO | 17.5% | 5.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | ENDEARED | 13.6% | 7.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | CELTIC TIMES | 11.5% | 8.66 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | SMART FIGHTER | 11.3% | 8.88 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLDEN BULL | 10.0% | 9.96 | 5 |
| 6 | 13 | YOUNG HORIZON | 7.7% | 13.01 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | WAR OF COURAGE | 7.1% | 14.14 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | KASI FARASI | 6.0% | 16.73 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | MACH TEN | 5.9% | 17.02 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | MORE RICE | 4.1% | 24.53 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | YEABOI | 4.0% | 24.70 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | SUPER TEN | 1.3% | 75.74 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 30.5
PLACE
2 21.5
3 15.5
5 21.5
QUINELLA
3,5 112.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 40
2,5 96.5
3,5 48.5
FORECAST
3,5 210
TIERCE
3,5,2 809
TRIO
2,3,5 172
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 543
QUARTET
3,5,2,8 8,977
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,12/2,3,5 5,484
5TH DOUBLE
5/3 396
5/5 174
TRIPLE TRIO
4,10,11/5,8,12/2,3,5 1,404,408
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,10,11/5,8,12/Any Combination 7,344