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Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STORM RIDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-3/4, with TELECOM DRAGON second and SPEEDY FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 STORM RIDER 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 12 1.8 2-3/4
2 2 TELECOM DRAGON TT H Bowman · C H Yip 6 3.7 2-3/4
3 9 SPEEDY FORTUNE B Avdulla · J Size 1 6.6 3-1/2
4 12 CHIU CHOW BROTHER B A Badel · K L Man 8 38.0 5-3/4
5 1 HAPPY GOLF K C Leung · F C Lor 9 32.0 5-3/4
6 8 MULTIDARLING TT H T Mo · T P Yung 4 19.0 6
7 4 MISTER FOX K De Melo · D J Hall 3 34.0 7-1/2
8 11 SUPER ELITE H/XB/CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 43.0 7-1/2
9 7 GOLDEN CHAMPION CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 7 80.0 8-1/4
10 6 COMMANDING MISSILE H/B2 A Atzeni · C W Chang 2 25.0 8-3/4
11 3 KINGLY DEMEANOR B1/TT1 L Hewitson · A S Cruz 11 72.0 9
12 10 COURIER MAGIC H/P/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 10 132.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STORM RIDER2. TELECOM DRAGON+2.75L3. SPEEDY FORTUNE+3.5L4. CHIU CHOW BROTHER+5.75L5. HAPPY GOLF+5.75L6. MULTIDARLING+6L7. MISTER FOX+7.5L8. SUPER ELITE+7.5L9. GOLDEN CHAMPION+8.25L10. COMMANDING MISSILE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORM RIDER (31.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 STORM RIDER 31.6% 3.17 1
2 2 TELECOM DRAGON 17.0% 5.89 2
3 9 SPEEDY FORTUNE 13.4% 7.47 3
4 3 KINGLY DEMEANOR 7.5% 13.36 11
5 8 MULTIDARLING 6.8% 14.80 6
6 11 SUPER ELITE 5.8% 17.24 8
7 4 MISTER FOX 4.5% 22.39 7
8 6 COMMANDING MISSILE 4.3% 23.10 10
9 1 HAPPY GOLF 4.3% 23.16 5
10 12 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 3.1% 32.25 4
11 10 COURIER MAGIC 1.0% 98.59 12
12 7 GOLDEN CHAMPION 0.8% 131.23 9
STORM RIDER — wonTELECOM DRAGONSPEEDY FORTUNEKINGLY DEMEANORMULTIDARLINGSUPER ELITEMISTER FOXCOMMANDING MISSILEHAPPY GOLFCHIU CHOW BROTHERCOURIER MAGICGOLDEN CHAMPION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 18

PLACE

2 11.5

5 11.5

9 18.5

QUINELLA

2,5 33.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 17.5

2,9 31

5,9 28

FORECAST

5,2 62

TIERCE

5,2,9 185

TRIO

2,5,9 52

FIRST 4

2,5,9,12 333

QUARTET

5,2,9,12 3,386

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 12

1/5 80.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,13/2,5,9 3,999