Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. C P BRAVE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with SWAN BAY second and ROMANTIC CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite AESTHETICISM finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.48.55

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	C P BRAVE Closed strongly V 1.48.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · P F Yiu	J McDonald	P F Yiu	3	134 lb	3.2	1-3/4
2	6	SWAN BAY Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	10	124 lb	9.2	1-3/4
3	5	ROMANTIC CHARM Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum	L Hewitson	C S Shum	8	126 lb	10.0	4-1/4
4	10	KIMBERLEY Led early PC-/B2/TT A Hamelin · J Richards	A Hamelin	J Richards	4	120 lb	72.0	4-1/2
5	7	U S S CONSTITUTION B/TT A Atzeni · J Size	A Atzeni	J Size	2	124 lb	17.0	6
6	8	AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	9	122 lb	2.5	6
7	9	GOLDEN SAMURAI Closed strongly B-/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	7	121 lb	11.0	7-1/2
8	3	ENIGMA TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	1	131 lb	59.0	8-1/4
9	4	ALL IS GOOD B C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	6	128 lb	51.0	12-1/2
10	2	SILVER KING XB-/TT H Bowman · F C Lor	H Bowman	F C Lor	5	134 lb	9.8	46-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick AESTHETICISM (46.3%) finished 6th — the winner C P BRAVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	AESTHETICISM	46.3%	2.16	6	2.5
2	1	C P BRAVE	14.6%	6.87	1	3.2
3	9	GOLDEN SAMURAI	9.2%	10.82	7	11.0
4	5	ROMANTIC CHARM	8.0%	12.44	3	10.0
5	2	SILVER KING	6.3%	15.99	10	9.8
6	6	SWAN BAY	5.0%	19.84	2	9.2
7	4	ALL IS GOOD	4.1%	24.38	9	51.0
8	7	U S S CONSTITUTION	3.5%	28.34	5	17.0
9	10	KIMBERLEY	2.3%	44.03	4	72.0
10	3	ENIGMA	0.6%	159.21	8	59.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 32

PLACE

1 13.5

5 23.5

6 24

QUINELLA

1,6 129.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 40.5

1,6 45.5

5,6 83.5

FORECAST

1,6 217

TIERCE

1,6,5 930

TRIO

1,5,6 290

FIRST 4

1,5,6,10 2,974

QUARTET

1,6,5,10 30,834

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 101.5

5/6 41.5

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